Sustainable development pathways of hydropower in China: Interdisciplinary qualitative analysis and scenario-based system dynamics quantitative modeling
Sustainable development pathways of hydropower in China: Interdisciplinary qualitative analysis and scenario-based system dynamics quantitative modeling
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中国水电可持续发展路径：跨学科定性分析和基于情景的系统动力学定量建模
DOI：
10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.125528
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发表时间：
2020-12
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Xu Xiaomin
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Sun Lijie;Niu Dongxiao;Wang Keke;Xu Xiaomin
水电作为一种低成本、低碳、清洁的可再生能源，对减少碳排放、减缓气候变化至关重要。与不稳定和高度波动的可再生能源相比，灵活的水电有助于确保电网的可靠运行。然而，开发成本增加，移民和环境问题，近年来阻碍了中国的水电发展。本文首先回顾了我国水电开发的历史和现状，结合经济-能源-环境系统、水-能-粮关系和社会-水文学理论，分析了水电开发的复杂影响机制，并通过成本效益分析识别了水电开发的驱动因素。在此基础上，建立了基于多学科定性分析的水电开发定量系统动力学模型。结合激励政策和技术进步，设定了四种情景。SD模型的多情景预测结果和敏感性分析结果表明，激励政策可以增强水电投资吸引力，显著促进水电长期稳定发展，而技术进步可以提高水电的效率和碳减排效益。在对比分析研究结果的基础上，从水电发展理念、合作机制、政策机制和技术进步4个方面提出了促进我国绿色水电可持续发展的具体政策建议。
As a low-cost, low-carbon, and clean renewable energy, hydropower is crucial to carbon emissions reduction and climate change mitigation. Compared with non-steady and highly volatile renewable energy, flexible hydropower can help secure the reliable operation of the grid. However, development cost increase, resettlement and environmental issues have recently hindered China’s hydropower development. This paper first reviews the history and current status of hydropower development in China, integrates the economy-energy-environment system, the water-energy-food nexus, and socio-hydrology theory to analyze the complex influence mechanism of hydropower development, and identifies driving factors of hydropower development through a cost-benefit analysis. Then, the quantitative system dynamics (SD) model of hydropower development is constructed based on the interdisciplinary qualitative analysis. Combining incentive policies and technological progress, four scenarios are set. The multi-scenario prediction results and sensitivity analysis results of the SD model indicate that incentive policies can enhance the attractiveness of hydropower investment and significantly promote long-term stable hydropower development, while technological progress can improve the efficiency and carbon emissions reduction benefits of hydropower. Based on the comparative analysis of these results, specific policy recommendations for promoting sustainable development of green hydropower in China are proposed in terms of four aspects: the hydropower development concept, cooperation mechanism, policy mechanism, and technological progress.
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影响因子：
11.2
作者：
Chiung-Wen Hsu
通讯作者：
Chiung-Wen Hsu
影响因子：
5.5
作者：
Kaoru Ogino;S. K. Dash;M. Nakayama
通讯作者：
Kaoru Ogino;S. K. Dash;M. Nakayama
中国上海能源-水-碳关系压力的关键传导领域
影响因子：
11.1
作者：
Yang Xuechun;Yi Shijie;Qu Shen;Wang Renqing;Wang Yutao;Xu Ming
通讯作者：
Xu Ming
影响因子：
6.4
作者：
M. Feng;Pan Liu;Zejun Li;Jingwen Zhang;Dedi Liu;L. Xiong
通讯作者：
M. Feng;Pan Liu;Zejun Li;Jingwen Zhang;Dedi Liu;L. Xiong
影响因子：
9
作者：
Shengwen Tang;Shengwen Tang;Jingtao Chen;Peigui Sun;Yang Li;Peng Yu;E. Chen;E. Chen
通讯作者：
Shengwen Tang;Shengwen Tang;Jingtao Chen;Peigui Sun;Yang Li;Peng Yu;E. Chen;E. Chen