Joint inference of CFC lifetimes and banks suggests previously unidentified emissions.
Joint inference of CFC lifetimes and banks suggests previously unidentified emissions.
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DOI：
10.1038/s41467-021-23229-2
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发表时间：
2021-05-18
影响因子：
16.6
通讯作者：
Solomon S
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Lickley M;Fletcher S;Rigby M;Solomon S
氯氟烃（CFCs）是有害的臭氧消耗物质和温室气体。根据《蒙特利尔议定书》，氟氯化碳的生产已被逐步淘汰，但最近的研究表明，氟氯化碳-11出现了新的意外排放。要对氟氯化碳排放量进行量化，就需要对大气寿命和旧设备的持续排放量（即“库存”）进行准确的估计。在贝叶斯框架中，我们同时推断寿命，银行和排放的CFC-11，12和113使用现有的限制。我们发现所有三种气体的寿命可能都短于目前的推荐值，这表明推断排放量的最佳估计值大于最近的评估。我们的分析表明，库存排放量的下降速度快于总排放量，我们估计，2014-2016年期间，CFC-11、12和113的新的、意外的排放量分别为23.2、18.3和7.8千兆克/年。虽然最近的研究集中在意外的CFC-11排放，我们的研究结果要求进一步调查CFC-12和CFC-113的潜在排放源，沿着CFC-11。根据《蒙特利尔议定书》，氟氯化碳的生产已逐步淘汰，但最近又有报告说，氟氯化碳-11的排放量有所增加。在此，作者对多种因素进行了联合分析，发现CFC-11、CFC-12和CFC-113的排放量均高于预期，表明排放量有所恢复。
Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) are harmful ozone depleting substances and greenhouse gases. CFC production was phased-out under the Montreal Protocol, however recent studies suggest new and unexpected emissions of CFC-11. Quantifying CFC emissions requires accurate estimates of both atmospheric lifetimes and ongoing emissions from old equipment (i.e. ‘banks’). In a Bayesian framework we simultaneously infer lifetimes, banks and emissions of CFC-11, 12 and 113 using available constraints. We find lifetimes of all three gases are likely shorter than currently recommended values, suggesting that best estimates of inferred emissions are larger than recent evaluations. Our analysis indicates that bank emissions are decreasing faster than total emissions, and we estimate new, unexpected emissions during 2014-2016 were 23.2, 18.3, and 7.8 Gg/yr for CFC-11, 12 and 113, respectively. While recent studies have focused on unexpected CFC-11 emissions, our results call for further investigation of potential sources of emissions of CFC-12 and CFC-113, along with CFC-11. The production of chlorofluorocarbons (CFC) was phased-out under the Montreal, but renewed emissions of CFC-11 have been reported recently. Here, the authors present a joint analysis of multiple factors and find that emissions of CFC-11, but also CFC-12 and CFC-113 are higher than expected, indicating renewed emissions.
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