Distance to the scaling law: a useful approach for unveiling relationships between crime and urban metrics.
Distance to the scaling law: a useful approach for unveiling relationships between crime and urban metrics.
复制标题
DOI：
10.1371/journal.pone.0069580
复制
发表时间：
2013
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Mendes RS
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Alves LG;Ribeiro HV;Lenzi EK;Mendes RS
我们报告了一项关于凶杀案数量、人口规模和其他10个城市指标之间关系的量化分析。通过使用巴西城市的数据，我们发现，在研究人口与凶杀案数量以及人口与城市指标之间的关系时，随着人口规模的增加，出现了明确的平均标度定律。我们还证明了标度律周围的涨落是对数正态分布的，这使得我们能够用乘性和对数正态分布噪声驱动的类随机方程来模拟这些标度律。由于标度律的存在，我们认为用对数来描述城市指标函数中的凶杀案数量会更好。除了回归分析之外，我们还提出了一种方法，通过评估杀人案数量的实际值(以及城市指标的值)与尺度法则的期望值与人口规模之间的距离，来将犯罪和城市指标关联起来。事实证明，这种方法在揭示回归分析没有正确执行的关系/行为方面是稳健和有用的，例如，当凶杀案数量远远高于或低于比例定律时，老年人口的不可解释潜力，只有当凶杀案数量远远大于幂定律预期时，失业才具有解释潜力的事实，以及凶杀案数量的性别差异，在这些城市，女性人口低于比例律的城市的特征是高于幂定律的凶杀案数量。
We report on a quantitative analysis of relationships between the number of homicides, population size and ten other urban metrics. By using data from Brazilian cities, we show that well-defined average scaling laws with the population size emerge when investigating the relations between population and number of homicides as well as population and urban metrics. We also show that the fluctuations around the scaling laws are log-normally distributed, which enabled us to model these scaling laws by a stochastic-like equation driven by a multiplicative and log-normally distributed noise. Because of the scaling laws, we argue that it is better to employ logarithms in order to describe the number of homicides in function of the urban metrics via regression analysis. In addition to the regression analysis, we propose an approach to correlate crime and urban metrics via the evaluation of the distance between the actual value of the number of homicides (as well as the value of the urban metrics) and the value that is expected by the scaling law with the population size. This approach has proved to be robust and useful for unveiling relationships/behaviors that were not properly carried out by the regression analysis, such as the non-explanatory potential of the elderly population when the number of homicides is much above or much below the scaling law, the fact that unemployment has explanatory potential only when the number of homicides is considerably larger than the expected by the power law, and a gender difference in number of homicides, where cities with female population below the scaling law are characterized by a number of homicides above the power law.
登录
查看更多内容
影响因子：
3.7
作者：
Bettencourt LM;Lobo J;Strumsky D;West GB
通讯作者：
West GB
影响因子：
8.2
作者：
BECKER, GS
通讯作者：
BECKER, GS
影响因子：
13.7
作者：
Glaeser, EL;Sacerdote, B;Scheinkman, JA
通讯作者：
Scheinkman, JA
影响因子：
1.4
作者：
Cotte Poveda, Alexander
通讯作者：
Cotte Poveda, Alexander
影响因子：
1.8
作者：
Amancio, Diego R.;Oliveira, Osvaldo N., Jr.;Costa, Luciano da F.
通讯作者：
Costa, Luciano da F.