Rates of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and vaccination impact the fate of vaccine-resistant strains.
Rates of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and vaccination impact the fate of vaccine-resistant strains.
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SARS-CoV-2传播率和疫苗接种影响疫苗耐药菌株的命运。
DOI：
10.1038/s41598-021-95025-3
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发表时间：
2021-07-30
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Kondrashov FA
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Rella SA;Kulikova YA;Dermitzakis ET;Kondrashov FA
疫苗被认为是控制正在进行的SARS-CoV-2大流行的最佳解决方案。然而，疫苗耐药性菌株的出现可能来得太快，以至于目前的疫苗开发无法减轻大流行病的健康、经济和社会后果。为了量化和描述这种情况的风险，我们创建了一个SIR衍生模型，该模型具有疫苗耐药菌株的初始随机动力学，以研究其出现和建立的概率。我们使用类似SARS-CoV-2传播的参数，模拟了大流行的波浪状模式，并考虑了疫苗接种率和非药物干预措施的强度对耐药菌株出现概率的影响。正如预期的那样，我们发现快速接种疫苗降低了耐药菌株出现的概率。与直觉相反，当非药物干预措施放松时，大多数人已经接种了疫苗，出现耐药菌株的可能性大大增加。因此，我们表明，一段时间的传播减少接近疫苗接种活动结束，可以大大降低耐药菌株建立的概率。我们的研究结果表明，政策制定者和个人应考虑在整个疫苗接种期间保持非药物干预和减少传播的行为。
Vaccines are thought to be the best available solution for controlling the ongoing SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. However, the emergence of vaccine-resistant strains may come too rapidly for current vaccine developments to alleviate the health, economic and social consequences of the pandemic. To quantify and characterize the risk of such a scenario, we created a SIR-derived model with initial stochastic dynamics of the vaccine-resistant strain to study the probability of its emergence and establishment. Using parameters realistically resembling SARS-CoV-2 transmission, we model a wave-like pattern of the pandemic and consider the impact of the rate of vaccination and the strength of non-pharmaceutical intervention measures on the probability of emergence of a resistant strain. As expected, we found that a fast rate of vaccination decreases the probability of emergence of a resistant strain. Counterintuitively, when a relaxation of non-pharmaceutical interventions happened at a time when most individuals of the population have already been vaccinated the probability of emergence of a resistant strain was greatly increased. Consequently, we show that a period of transmission reduction close to the end of the vaccination campaign can substantially reduce the probability of resistant strain establishment. Our results suggest that policymakers and individuals should consider maintaining non-pharmaceutical interventions and transmission-reducing behaviours throughout the entire vaccination period.
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影响因子：
9.8
作者：
Chabas H;Lion S;Nicot A;Meaden S;van Houte S;Moineau S;Wahl LM;Westra ER;Gandon S
通讯作者：
Gandon S
影响因子：
64.8
作者：
Barnes CO;Jette CA;Abernathy ME;Dam KA;Esswein SR;Gristick HB;Malyutin AG;Sharaf NG;Huey-Tubman KE;Lee YE;Robbiani DF;Nussenzweig MC;West AP Jr;Bjorkman PJ
通讯作者：
Bjorkman PJ
SARS-COV-2血统的估计可传播和影响B.1.1.7在英国。
DOI：
10.1126/science.abg3055
发表时间：
2021-04-09
期刊：
Science (New York, N.Y.)
影响因子：
--
作者：
Davies NG;Abbott S;Barnard RC;Jarvis CI;Kucharski AJ;Munday JD;Pearson CAB;Russell TW;Tully DC;Washburne AD;Wenseleers T;Gimma A;Waites W;Wong KLM;van Zandvoort K;Silverman JD;CMMID COVID-19 Working Group;COVID-19 Genomics UK (COG-UK) Consortium;Diaz-Ordaz K;Keogh R;Eggo RM;Funk S;Jit M;Atkins KE;Edmunds WJ
通讯作者：
Edmunds WJ
DOI：
10.1056/nejmoa2035389
发表时间：
2021-02-04
期刊：
The New England journal of medicine
影响因子：
--
作者：
Baden LR;El Sahly HM;Essink B;Kotloff K;Frey S;Novak R;Diemert D;Spector SA;Rouphael N;Creech CB;McGettigan J;Khetan S;Segall N;Solis J;Brosz A;Fierro C;Schwartz H;Neuzil K;Corey L;Gilbert P;Janes H;Follmann D;Marovich M;Mascola J;Polakowski L;Ledgerwood J;Graham BS;Bennett H;Pajon R;Knightly C;Leav B;Deng W;Zhou H;Han S;Ivarsson M;Miller J;Zaks T;COVE Study Group
通讯作者：
COVE Study Group
DOI：
10.1073/pnas.2012370118
发表时间：
2021-01-07
影响因子：
11.1
作者：
Carleton T;Cornetet J;Huybers P;Meng KC;Proctor J
通讯作者：
Proctor J