Global evidence for ultraviolet radiation decreasing COVID-19 growth rates.
Global evidence for ultraviolet radiation decreasing COVID-19 growth rates.
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DOI：
10.1073/pnas.2012370118
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发表时间：
2021-01-07
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Proctor J
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Carleton T;Cornetet J;Huybers P;Meng KC;Proctor J
人们对COVID-19病例是否对环境条件有反应很感兴趣。如果存在影响，当地环境条件的季节性变化可能会改变COVID-19的全球空间模式，并为当地的公共卫生应对提供信息。使用每日COVID-19病例和当地环境条件的综合全球数据集，我们发现每日紫外线（UV）辐射增加会降低随后2.5周内COVID-19病例的累积日增长率。虽然在统计上很重要，但相对于社会距离政策，紫外线季节性的隐含影响是适度的。温度和特定湿度的累积效应在统计学上并不显著，由于季节性变化的环境变量的净效应存在不确定性，因此COVID-19的总体季节性仍有待确定。随着几乎每个国家都在抗击2019年新型冠状病毒（COVID-19），有必要了解当地环境条件如何改变传播。迄今为止，量化疾病的季节性受到数据稀缺和难以在观察性研究中将气候变量与其他传播驱动因素隔离开来的限制。我们将由173个国家的3，235个地区组成的COVID-19确诊病例的空间分辨率数据集与当地环境条件和统计方法相结合，以量化观测数据设置中环境条件的因果影响。我们发现，紫外线（UV）辐射对COVID-19每日增长率具有统计学显著影响：UV的SD增加使COVID-19病例的每日增长率在随后的2.5周内降低1个百分点，相对于13.2%的平均样本内增长率。滞后效应的时间模式在UV暴露后9 - 11天达到峰值，与孵育、检测和报告的组合时间尺度一致。温度和湿度的累积效应在统计学上不显著。模拟显示了紫外线的季节性变化如何影响1月至6月COVID-19增长率的区域模式，表明紫外线对疾病传播的影响远小于社交距离政策。此外，由于其他环境变量的不确定影响，于此期间，大部分地区的COVID-19总季节性具有不确定的迹象。我们的研究结果表明，紫外线照射会影响COVID-19病例，但对季节性的全面了解有待进一步分析。
There is interest in whether COVID-19 cases respond to environmental conditions. If an effect is present, seasonal changes in local environmental conditions could alter the global spatial pattern of COVID-19 and inform local public health responses. Using a comprehensive global dataset of daily COVID-19 cases and local environmental conditions, we find that increased daily ultraviolet (UV) radiation lowers the cumulative daily growth rate of COVID-19 cases over the subsequent 2.5 wk. Although statistically significant, the implied influence of UV seasonality is modest relative to social distancing policies. Temperature and specific humidity cumulative effects are not statistically significant, and total COVID-19 seasonality remains to be established because of uncertainty in the net effects from seasonally varying environmental variables. With nearly every country combating the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19), there is a need to understand how local environmental conditions may modify transmission. To date, quantifying seasonality of the disease has been limited by scarce data and the difficulty of isolating climatological variables from other drivers of transmission in observational studies. We combine a spatially resolved dataset of confirmed COVID-19 cases, composed of 3,235 regions across 173 countries, with local environmental conditions and a statistical approach developed to quantify causal effects of environmental conditions in observational data settings. We find that ultraviolet (UV) radiation has a statistically significant effect on daily COVID-19 growth rates: a SD increase in UV lowers the daily growth rate of COVID-19 cases by 1 percentage point over the subsequent 2.5 wk, relative to an average in-sample growth rate of 13.2%. The time pattern of lagged effects peaks 9 to 11 d after UV exposure, consistent with the combined timescale of incubation, testing, and reporting. Cumulative effects of temperature and humidity are not statistically significant. Simulations illustrate how seasonal changes in UV have influenced regional patterns of COVID-19 growth rates from January to June, indicating that UV has a substantially smaller effect on the spread of the disease than social distancing policies. Furthermore, total COVID-19 seasonality has indeterminate sign for most regions during this period due to uncertain effects of other environmental variables. Our findings indicate UV exposure influences COVID-19 cases, but a comprehensive understanding of seasonality awaits further analysis.
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影响因子：
3.1
作者：
Darnell ME;Subbarao K;Feinstone SM;Taylor DR
通讯作者：
Taylor DR
影响因子：
5.4
作者：
Auffhammer, Maximilian;Hsiang, Solomon M.;Sobel, Adam
通讯作者：
Sobel, Adam
影响因子：
5
作者：
Barreca, Alan I.;Shimshack, Jay P.
通讯作者：
Shimshack, Jay P.
影响因子：
6.2
作者：
Deschenes, Olivier;Greenstone, Michael
通讯作者：
Greenstone, Michael
DOI：
10.1146/annurev-resource-100815-095343
发表时间：
2016-01-01
期刊：
ANNUAL REVIEW OF RESOURCE ECONOMICS, VOL 8
影响因子：
--
作者：
Hsiang, Solomon
通讯作者：
Hsiang, Solomon