A Predictive Model and Risk Factors for Case Fatality of COVID-19.
A Predictive Model and Risk Factors for Case Fatality of COVID-19.
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DOI：
10.3390/jpm11010036
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发表时间：
2021-01-08
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Barco AA
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Álvarez-Mon M;Ortega MA;Gasulla Ó;Fortuny-Profitós J;Mazaira-Font FA;Saurina P;Monserrat J;Plana MN;Troncoso D;Moreno JS;Muñoz B;Arranz A;Varona JF;Lopez-Escobar A;Barco AA
本研究旨在建立2019冠状病毒病（COVID-19）患者重症监护室（ICU）入院或死亡风险的个性化分析模型，作为住院患者快速临床管理的工具，以实现医疗资源的弹性。这是一项观察性、分析性、回顾性队列研究，并进行纵向随访。数据收集自3489名使用RT-qPCR诊断为COVID-19的患者的医疗记录，这些患者在欧洲迄今为止记录的最高社区传播期间：2020年2月至6月。该研究在马德里地区医院护理的两个健康领域进行：马德里首都的中心区域（Hospitales de马德里del Grupo HM Hospitales（CH-HM），n = 1931）和马德里大都市区（Hospital Universitario Príncipe de Asturias（MH-HUPA）n = 1558）。通过使用回归模型，我们观察到不同的患者变量具有不同的重要性。在所有分析的变量中，发现基础氧饱和度具有最高的相对重要性，其值为20.3%，其次是年龄（17.7%）、淋巴细胞/白细胞比率（14.4%）、CRP值（12.5%）、合并症（12.5%）和白细胞计数（8.9%）。ICU/死亡的风险分为三个级别：低风险（<5%）、中风险（5-20%）和高风险（>20%）。在高风险水平，13%需要ICU入院，29%死亡，37%有ICU死亡结局。该预测模型使我们能够对受COVID-19影响的住院患者的预后恶化风险进行个体化。
This study aimed to create an individualized analysis model of the risk of intensive care unit (ICU) admission or death for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients as a tool for the rapid clinical management of hospitalized patients in order to achieve a resilience of medical resources. This is an observational, analytical, retrospective cohort study with longitudinal follow-up. Data were collected from the medical records of 3489 patients diagnosed with COVID-19 using RT-qPCR in the period of highest community transmission recorded in Europe to date: February–June 2020. The study was carried out in in two health areas of hospital care in the Madrid region: the central area of the Madrid capital (Hospitales de Madrid del Grupo HM Hospitales (CH-HM), n = 1931) and the metropolitan area of Madrid (Hospital Universitario Príncipe de Asturias (MH-HUPA) n = 1558). By using a regression model, we observed how the different patient variables had unequal importance. Among all the analyzed variables, basal oxygen saturation was found to have the highest relative importance with a value of 20.3%, followed by age (17.7%), lymphocyte/leukocyte ratio (14.4%), CRP value (12.5%), comorbidities (12.5%), and leukocyte count (8.9%). Three levels of risk of ICU/death were established: low-risk level (<5%), medium-risk level (5–20%), and high-risk level (>20%). At the high-risk level, 13% needed ICU admission, 29% died, and 37% had an ICU–death outcome. This predictive model allowed us to individualize the risk for worse outcome for hospitalized patients affected by COVID-19.
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影响因子：
2.1
作者：
Larsson E;Brattström O;Agvald-Öhman C;Grip J;Campoccia Jalde F;Strålin K;Nauclér P;Oldner A;Konrad D;Persson BP;Eriksson LI;Mårtensson J;Karolinska Intensive Care COVID-19 Study Group
通讯作者：
Karolinska Intensive Care COVID-19 Study Group
影响因子：
3.7
作者：
Allenbach Y;Saadoun D;Maalouf G;Vieira M;Hellio A;Boddaert J;Gros H;Salem JE;Resche Rigon M;Menyssa C;Biard L;Benveniste O;Cacoub P;DIMICOVID
通讯作者：
DIMICOVID
影响因子：
8.8
作者：
Liu, Fang;Li, Lin;Zhou, Xiang
通讯作者：
Zhou, Xiang
影响因子：
9.8
作者：
Ceylan, Zeynep
通讯作者：
Ceylan, Zeynep
重症 COVID-19 患者低钙血症的患病率和预测价值
影响因子：
6.7
作者：
Liu, Jingmei;Han, Ping;Tian, Dean
通讯作者：
Tian, Dean