Group-Based Trajectory Modeling (Nearly) Two Decades Later.
Group-Based Trajectory Modeling (Nearly) Two Decades Later.
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DOI：
10.1007/s10940-010-9113-7
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发表时间：
2010-12
影响因子：
3.6
通讯作者：
Odgers, Candice L.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Nagin, Daniel S.;Odgers, Candice L.
自Nagin和Land（1993）发表“年龄，犯罪生涯和人口异质性：非参数混合泊松模型的规范和估计”以来，已经过去了近20年。在那篇文章中，纳金和兰德提出了一种统计方法，称为基于组的轨迹建模。该文件的主要目标是解决与当时的“热门话题”有关的问题-犯罪生涯辩论-而不是制定新的统计方法。正如论文摘要中所描述的，这些问题是：“首先，个人犯罪模式的生命历程是否以独特的静止期为标志？第二，在个人层面上，犯罪率是否随年龄而系统地变化？特别是，年龄-犯罪曲线是单峰还是平坦？第三，长期犯罪者与不太活跃的犯罪者有什么不同？罪犯本身是否有系统的不同？”图1显示了Nagin（2005）对Nagin and Land（1993）报告的轨迹的更新版本。该分析基于法林顿和韦斯特（1990）收集的经典数据集，其中包括来自英国伦敦一个贫困社区的400多名男性样本中10至32岁的定罪数据。发现使用零膨胀泊松建模选项分析的四组模型最适合数据。最大的轨迹组占人口的69.5%，由一般没有定罪的个人组成。这三种犯罪轨迹包括一个受限制的群体（占人口的12.4%），在青春期后期急剧上升，然后在20岁时下降到接近零的犯罪率，一个高驼峰形轨迹的高慢性轨迹（占人口的5.9%）和一个低速率的慢性轨迹，占其余12.2%的人口。此外，图中还显示了每个轨迹的95%置信区间。
Nearly two decades have passed since the publication of ‘‘Age, Criminal Careers, and Population Heterogeneity: Specification and Estimation of a Nonparametric Mixed Poisson Model’’by Nagin and Land (1993). In that article Nagin and Land laid out a statistical method that has come to be called group-based trajectory modeling. The principle objective of the paper was to address issues related to the ‘‘hot topic’’of the time—the criminal career debate—not to lay out a new statistical methodology. As described in the paper’s abstract, these issues were:‘‘First, is the life course of individual offending patterns marked by distinctive periods of quiescence? Second, at the level of the individual, do offending rates vary systematically with age? In particular, is the age-crime curve single peaked or flat? Third, are chronic offenders different from less active offenders? Do offenders themselves differ in systematic ways?’’Figure 1 reports Nagin’s (2005) updated version of the trajectories reported in Nagin and Land (1993). The analysis is based on the classic dataset assembled by Farrington and West (1990), which includes data on convictions from age 10 to 32 in a sample of over 400 males from a poor neighborhood in London, England. A four group model, analyzed using the zero-inflated Poisson modeling option, was found to best fit the data. The largest trajectory group accounted for 69.5% of the population, and was composed of individuals who generally had no convictions. The three offending trajectories included an adolescentlimited group (12.4% of the population), which peaked sharply in late adolescence, and then declined to a near zero rate of offending by age 20, a high chronic trajectory (5.9% of the population) with a high-humped shaped trajectory and a low rate chronic trajectory that accounted for the remaining 12.2% of the population. Also, shown in the figure are 95% confidence intervals around each trajectory.
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