Spatiotemporal spread pattern of the COVID-19 cases in China.
Spatiotemporal spread pattern of the COVID-19 cases in China.
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.pone.0244351
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发表时间：
2020
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Guo Y
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Feng Y;Li Q;Tong X;Wang R;Zhai S;Gao C;Lei Z;Chen S;Zhou Y;Wang J;Yan X;Xie H;Chen P;Liu S;Xv X;Liu S;Jin Y;Wang C;Hong Z;Luan K;Wei C;Xu J;Jiang H;Xiao C;Guo Y
新冠肺炎疫情目前正在全球范围内广泛蔓延，对公共安全和全球社会造成巨大威胁。本研究分析了新冠肺炎疫情在中国的时空格局，通过空间聚集性揭示了中国的疫情中心，并勾勒出距离武汉对疫情传播的实质性影响。测算结果显示，新冠肺炎日新增病例多发生在3月6日前的武汉及周边地区，之后转移至大湾区(深港澳)。中国的新冠肺炎病例总数主要分布在环永线以东，1月24日和2月7日震中占全国总数的六成以上，1月31日和2月31日震中占全国的一半，2月14日起震中占全国的七成以上。病例总数最终稳定在8.4万例左右，武汉的拐点出现在2月14日，比湖北(武汉以外)和中国(湖北以外)晚一周。基于广义加性模型的分析表明，人口密度和距省会城市的距离与病例总数显著相关，而距地市和城际交通站的距离以及1月24日以后从武汉流入的人口与病例总数的关系不强。研究结果和发现将为理解新冠肺炎传播的变化以及控制全球新冠肺炎大流行传播的影响提供有价值的见解。
The COVID-19 pandemic is currently spreading widely around the world, causing huge threats to public safety and global society. This study analyzes the spatiotemporal pattern of the COVID-19 pandemic in China, reveals China’s epicenters of the pandemic through spatial clustering, and delineates the substantial effect of distance to Wuhan on the pandemic spread. The results show that the daily new COVID-19 cases mostly occurred in and around Wuhan before March 6, and then moved to the Grand Bay Area (Shenzhen, Hong Kong and Macau). The total COVID-19 cases in China were mainly distributed in the east of the Huhuanyong Line, where the epicenters accounted for more than 60% of the country’s total in/on 24 January and 7 February, half in/on 31 January, and more than 70% from 14 February. The total cases finally stabilized at approximately 84,000, and the inflection point for Wuhan was on 14 February, one week later than those of Hubei (outside Wuhan) and China (outside Hubei). The generalized additive model-based analysis shows that population density and distance to provincial cities were significantly associated with the total number of the cases, while distances to prefecture cities and intercity traffic stations, and population inflow from Wuhan after 24 January, had no strong relationships with the total number of cases. The results and findings should provide valuable insights for understanding the changes in the COVID-19 transmission as well as implications for controlling the global COVID-19 pandemic spread.
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