Climate change modulates the stratospheric volcanic sulfate aerosol lifecycle and radiative forcing from tropical eruptions.
Climate change modulates the stratospheric volcanic sulfate aerosol lifecycle and radiative forcing from tropical eruptions.
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DOI：
10.1038/s41467-021-24943-7
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发表时间：
2021-08-12
影响因子：
16.6
通讯作者：
Schmidt A
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Aubry TJ;Staunton-Sykes J;Marshall LR;Haywood J;Abraham NL;Schmidt A
爆炸性火山爆发影响气候，但气候变化如何影响平流层火山硫酸盐气溶胶生命周期和辐射强迫仍然没有探索。我们结合联合收割机的喷发柱模式与气溶胶气候模式表明，平流层气溶胶光学深度扰动频繁的中等规模的热带火山喷发（如Nabro 2011）将减少75%，在高端变暖的情况下，与今天相比，未来对流层顶高度上升和不变的喷发柱高度的结果。与此相反，全球平均辐射强迫，平流层变暖和表面冷却不频繁的大规模热带火山爆发（如山。Pinatubo 1991）将在未来分别加剧30%、52%和15%。这些变化是由气溶胶尺寸的减少，主要是由加速的布鲁尔-多布森环流，并在喷发柱高度的增加。因此，量化喷发柱动力学和气溶胶生命周期的变化是评估未来喷发对气候反应的关键。气候变化如何影响平流层火山气溶胶的生命周期和相关的辐射强迫尚不清楚。在这里，作者提出的模型实验表明，气候变化放大了大规模热带火山爆发的强迫，但减少了中等规模热带火山爆发的强迫。
Explosive volcanic eruptions affect climate, but how climate change affects the stratospheric volcanic sulfate aerosol lifecycle and radiative forcing remains unexplored. We combine an eruptive column model with an aerosol-climate model to show that the stratospheric aerosol optical depth perturbation from frequent moderate-magnitude tropical eruptions (e.g. Nabro 2011) will be reduced by 75% in a high-end warming scenario compared to today, a consequence of future tropopause height rise and unchanged eruptive column height. In contrast, global-mean radiative forcing, stratospheric warming and surface cooling from infrequent large-magnitude tropical eruptions (e.g. Mt. Pinatubo 1991) will be exacerbated by 30%, 52 and 15% in the future, respectively. These changes are driven by an aerosol size decrease, mainly caused by the acceleration of the Brewer-Dobson circulation, and an increase in eruptive column height. Quantifying changes in both eruptive column dynamics and aerosol lifecycle is therefore key to assessing the climate response to future eruptions. How climate change influences the lifecycle of stratospheric volcanic aerosols and the associated radiative forcing is unknown. Here, the authors present model experiments suggesting that climate change amplifies the forcing of large-magnitude tropical eruptions but reduces the forcing of moderate-magnitude tropical eruptions.
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影响因子：
5.2
作者：
Aubry, T. J.;Cerminara, M.;Jellinek, A. M.
通讯作者：
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影响因子：
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作者：
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通讯作者：
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影响因子：
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作者：
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通讯作者：
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