Optimal health and economic impact of non-pharmaceutical intervention measures prior and post vaccination in England: a mathematical modelling study.
Optimal health and economic impact of non-pharmaceutical intervention measures prior and post vaccination in England: a mathematical modelling study.
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DOI：
10.1098/rsos.211746
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发表时间：
2022-08
影响因子：
3.5
通讯作者：
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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背景即使在疫苗接种方面取得了良好进展，英国的SARS-CoV-2感染可能会继续造成很高的疾病负担，因此对卫生政策决策者构成重大挑战。严格的政府强制性物理距离措施（封锁）已被证明在流行病学上有效，但可能产生积极和消极的经济后果。从理论上讲，任何干预政策的持续时间和频率都可以优化，以最大限度地提高经济效益，同时大幅减少疾病。方法.在这里，我们使用一个预先存在的SARS-CoV-2传播模型来评估不同强度的控制通过时间的健康和经济影响，以确定最佳的方法，在英国的非药物干预的严格性，考虑到疫苗接种的作用，在减少未来的物理距离措施的需要。该模型针对英格兰的COVID-19疫情进行校准，我们对2020年预防性中断的最佳时间以及自2021年1月封锁以来的最佳放松政策进行了回顾性分析，并考虑了健康改善的支付意愿（WTP）。结果我们发现，精确的时间和干预的强度是高度依赖于控制的目标。由于干预措施放宽，我们预测的情况下，死灰复燃，但最佳的干预政策可以建立依赖于每质量调整生命年损失避免的支付意愿。我们的研究结果表明，建立一个最佳的控制水平可以导致减少数十亿英镑的净货币损失，这取决于精确的支付意愿值。结论随着英国解除封锁，但仍面临持续的大流行，在制定政策决策时准确确定整体健康和经济成本至关重要。我们展示了如何量化其中的一些，采用机械传染病传播模型，为正在进行的COVID-19大流行建立最佳控制水平。
Background. Even with good progress on vaccination, SARS-CoV-2 infections in the UK may continue to impose a high burden of disease and therefore pose substantial challenges for health policy decision makers. Stringent government-mandated physical distancing measures (lockdown) have been demonstrated to be epidemiologically effective, but can have both positive and negative economic consequences. The duration and frequency of any intervention policy could, in theory, be optimized to maximize economic benefits while achieving substantial reductions in disease. Methods. Here, we use a pre-existing SARS-CoV-2 transmission model to assess the health and economic implications of different strengths of control through time in order to identify optimal approaches to non-pharmaceutical intervention stringency in the UK, considering the role of vaccination in reducing the need for future physical distancing measures. The model is calibrated to the COVID-19 epidemic in England and we carry out retrospective analysis of the optimal timing of precautionary breaks in 2020 and the optimal relaxation policy from the January 2021 lockdown, considering the willingness to pay (WTP) for health improvement. Results. We find that the precise timing and intensity of interventions is highly dependent upon the objective of control. As intervention measures are relaxed, we predict a resurgence in cases, but the optimal intervention policy can be established dependent upon the WTP per quality adjusted life year loss avoided. Our results show that establishing an optimal level of control can result in a reduction in net monetary loss of billions of pounds, dependent upon the precise WTP value. Conclusion. It is vital, as the UK emerges from lockdown, but continues to face an on-going pandemic, to accurately establish the overall health and economic costs when making policy decisions. We demonstrate how some of these can be quantified, employing mechanistic infectious disease transmission models to establish optimal levels of control for the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.
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影响因子：
3.8
作者：
Probert WJ;Shea K;Fonnesbeck CJ;Runge MC;Carpenter TE;Dürr S;Garner MG;Harvey N;Stevenson MA;Webb CT;Werkman M;Tildesley MJ;Ferrari MJ
通讯作者：
Ferrari MJ
DOI：
10.1016/j.lanepe.2021.100267
发表时间：
2022-01
期刊：
The Lancet regional health. Europe
影响因子：
--
作者：
Liu Y;Sandmann FG;Barnard RC;Pearson CAB;Pastore R;Pebody R;Flasche S;Jit M
通讯作者：
Jit M
DOI：
10.1016/j.socscimed.2011.05.025
发表时间：
2011-07
期刊：
Social science & medicine (1982)
影响因子：
--
作者：
Smith RD;Keogh-Brown MR;Barnett T
通讯作者：
Barnett T
与传染病的传播相关的社会接触和混合模式。
影响因子：
15.8
作者：
Mossong, Joeel;Hens, Niel;Jit, Mark;Beutels, Philippe;Auranen, Kari;Mikolajczyk, Rafael;Massari, Marco;Salmaso, Stefania;Tomba, Gianpaolo Scalia;Wallinga, Jacco;Heijne, Janneke;Sadkowska-Todys, Malgorzata;Rosinska, Magdalena;Edmunds, W. John
通讯作者：
Edmunds, W. John
影响因子：
9.8
作者：
Goolsbee A;Syverson C
通讯作者：
Syverson C