Fear, lockdown, and diversion: Comparing drivers of pandemic economic decline 2020.
Fear, lockdown, and diversion: Comparing drivers of pandemic economic decline 2020.
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DOI：
10.1016/j.jpubeco.2020.104311
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发表时间：
2021-01
影响因子：
9.8
通讯作者：
Syverson C
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Goolsbee A;Syverson C
二零二零年经济活动因COVID-19而大幅萎缩。一个重要的问题是，这种崩溃在多大程度上是由政府施加的限制造成的，而不是人们自愿选择呆在家里避免感染。本文利用110个不同行业的225万多家个体企业的客户访问手机记录数据，研究了经济放缓的驱动因素。在危机期间，在同一个通勤区内，但在不同政策制度的州和县边界上，比较消费者的行为表明，法律的关闭命令只占消费者行为大规模变化的一小部分（而且跟踪县级政策条件比单独使用州级政策要准确得多）。虽然整体消费者流量下降了60个百分点，但法律的限制只能解释其中的7个百分点。个人的选择更为重要，似乎与对感染的恐惧有关。在法律的命令实施之前，客流量开始下降;受到该县报告的COVID死亡人数的高度影响;并显示出消费者从更繁忙、更拥挤的商店明显转向同行业中较小、不那么忙碌的商店。撤销关闭令的州在消费者访问方面出现了对称的温和复苏，进一步支持了政策的小估计效果。虽然关闭令的总体影响很小，但它们确实在将消费者的访问从“非必要”企业重新分配到“必要”企业以及从餐馆和酒吧重新分配到杂货店和其他食品销售商方面产生了重大影响。
The collapse of economic activity in 2020 from COVID-19 has been immense. An important question is how much of that collapse resulted from government-imposed restrictions versus people voluntarily choosing to stay home to avoid infection. This paper examines the drivers of the economic slowdown using cellular phone records data on customer visits to more than 2.25 million individual businesses across 110 different industries. Comparing consumer behavior over the crisis within the same commuting zones but across state and county boundaries with different policy regimes suggests that legal shutdown orders account for only a modest share of the massive changes to consumer behavior (and that tracking county-level policy conditions is significantly more accurate than using state-level policies alone). While overall consumer traffic fell by 60 percentage points, legal restrictions explain only 7 percentage points of this. Individual choices were far more important and seem tied to fears of infection. Traffic started dropping before the legal orders were in place; was highly influenced by the number of COVID deaths reported in the county; and showed a clear shift by consumers away from busier, more crowded stores toward smaller, less busy stores in the same industry. States that repealed their shutdown orders saw symmetric, modest recoveries in consumer visits, further supporting the small estimated effect of policy. Although the shutdown orders had little aggregate impact, they did have a significant effect in reallocating consumer visits away from “nonessential” to “essential” businesses and from restaurants and bars toward groceries and other food sellers.
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影响因子：
9.8
作者：
Fang H;Wang L;Yang Y
通讯作者：
Yang Y
影响因子：
9.8
作者：
Forsythe, Eliza;Kahn, Lisa B.;Wiczer, David
通讯作者：
Wiczer, David
DOI：
10.1073/pnas.2006991117
发表时间：
2020-07-28
影响因子：
11.1
作者：
Bartik, Alexander W.;Bertrand, Marianne;Stanton, Christopher
通讯作者：
Stanton, Christopher
影响因子：
6.3
作者：
Dave D;Friedson A;Matsuzawa K;Sabia JJ;Safford S
通讯作者：
Safford S
影响因子：
3.7
作者：
BURBIDGE, JB;MAGEE, L;ROBB, AL
通讯作者：
ROBB, AL