JUE Insight: Were urban cowboys enough to control COVID-19? Local shelter-in-place orders and coronavirus case growth.
JUE Insight: Were urban cowboys enough to control COVID-19? Local shelter-in-place orders and coronavirus case growth.
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DOI：
10.1016/j.jue.2020.103294
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发表时间：
2022-01
影响因子：
6.3
通讯作者：
Safford S
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Dave D;Friedson A;Matsuzawa K;Sabia JJ;Safford S
减少COVID-19传播的最常见政策处方之一是通过隔离令（SIPOs）合法执行社会距离。本研究考察了地方城市国家知识产权局政策在遏制COVID-19病例中的作用。具体而言，我们探讨了(i)与非城市化地区相比，城市化地区县级知识产权组织的相对有效性，（ii）城市县采用知识产权组织产生与新冠病毒相关的健康效益的机制，以及（iii）在全州范围内晚采用知识产权组织所产生的健康效益是否超过了早期采用知识产权组织所取得的效益。我们利用了德克萨斯州独特的实验室，在该州，人口稠密的县在2020年4月2日采用全州SIPO之前，早期采用了当地SIPO，覆盖了该州近三分之二的人口。通过事件研究框架，我们发现，在全国范围内采用国家知识产权局与全职在家的居民比例增加8%以及可能导致COVID-19传播的场所（如餐馆、酒吧、酒店和娱乐场所）的人流量减少13%至19%有关。这些社会距离效应在城市化和人口稠密的县最大。然后，我们发现，在早期采用国家知识产权局的城市县，在采用国家知识产权局两周半后，COVID-19病例增长率下降了21至26个百分点，这一结果有力地控制了COVID-19爆发时间、冠状病毒检测、年龄分布和政治偏好的县级异质性。我们发现，德克萨斯州COVID-19病例的遏制增长中约有90%来自城市化县早期采用sipo，这表明后来全州范围内的就地安置任务产生的健康效益相对较少。
One of the most common policy prescriptions to reduce the spread of COVID-19 has been to legally enforce social distancing through shelter-in-place orders (SIPOs). This study examines the role of localized urban SIPO policy in curbing COVID-19 cases. Specifically, we explore (i) the comparative effectiveness of county-level SIPOs in urbanized as compared to non-urbanized areas, (ii) the mechanisms through which SIPO adoption in urban counties yields COVID-related health benefits, and (iii) whether late adoption of a statewide SIPO yields health benefits beyond those achieved from early adopting counties. We exploit the unique laboratory of Texas, a state in which the early adoption of local SIPOs by densely populated counties covered almost two-thirds of the state's population prior to adoption of a statewide SIPO on April 2, 2020. Using an event study framework, we document that countywide SIPO adoption is associated with an 8 percent increase in the percent of residents who remain at home full-time and between a 13 to 19 percent decrease in foot-traffic at venues that may contribute to the spread of COVID-19 such as restaurants, bars, hotels, and entertainment venues. These social distancing effects are largest in urbanized and densely populated counties. Then, we find that in early adopting urban counties, COVID-19 case growth fell by 21 to 26 percentage points two-and-a-half weeks following adoption of a SIPO, a result robust to controls for county-level heterogeneity in COVID-19 outbreak timing, coronavirus testing, the age distribution, and political preferences. We find that approximately 90 percent of the curbed growth in COVID-19 cases in Texas came from the early adoption of SIPOs by urbanized counties, suggesting that the later statewide shelter-in-place mandate yielded relatively few health benefits.
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