Influenza seasonality in Madagascar: the mysterious African free-runner.
Influenza seasonality in Madagascar: the mysterious African free-runner.
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DOI：
10.1111/irv.12308
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发表时间：
2015-05
影响因子：
4.4
通讯作者：
Heraud JM
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Alonso WJ;Guillebaud J;Viboud C;Razanajatovo NH;Orelle A;Zhou SZ;Randrianasolo L;Heraud JM
流感活动的季节性驱动因素在热带环境中仍然存在争议，因为流行病没有明确的阶段性。塔那那利佛是一个特别有趣的案例研究，因为它位于马达加斯加，这是一个位于热带的岛屿，与其他国家的连通程度可以量化。我们的目的是解开在马达加斯加的流感季节性的环境强迫和人口流动的作用。我们编制了2002年至2012年期间在塔那那利佛收集的实验室确认的流感阳性标本的每周计数，其中数据来自撒哈拉以南国家和马达加斯加外国游客最多的国家。编制了研究期间的每日气候指标。总体而言，在塔那那利佛检测到的流感活动早于在北方半球温带地区发现的活动。这一活动与非洲大陆其他国家或与马达加斯加高度相关的国家（A（H1N1）pdm09除外）的病毒活动时间匹配性较差。塔那那利佛的流感检测与旅行活动无关，尽管它与研究的所有气候变量正相关，但这种关联很弱。塔那那利佛流感活动的时间是不规则的，不是由气候驱动的，并且与地理上接近或与马达加斯加高度相关的国家不一致。这项工作开启了关于全球流感季节性驱动因素的新问题，特别是在中纬度和连接较少的地区，以适应当地的疫苗策略。
The seasonal drivers of influenza activity remain debated in tropical settings where epidemics are not clearly phased. Antananarivo is a particularly interesting case study because it is in Madagascar, an island situated in the tropics and with quantifiable connectivity levels to other countries. We aimed at disentangling the role of environmental forcing and population fluxes on influenza seasonality in Madagascar. We compiled weekly counts of laboratory-confirmed influenza-positive specimens for the period 2002 to 2012 collected in Antananarivo, with data available from sub-Saharan countries and countries contributing most foreign travelers to Madagascar. Daily climate indicators were compiled for the study period. Overall, influenza activity detected in Antananarivo predated that identified in temperate Northern Hemisphere locations. This activity presented poor temporal matching with viral activity in other countries from the African continent or countries highly connected to Madagascar excepted for A(H1N1)pdm09. Influenza detection in Antananarivo was not associated with travel activity and, although it was positively correlated with all climatic variables studied, such association was weak. The timing of influenza activity in Antananarivo is irregular, is not driven by climate, and does not align with that of countries in geographic proximity or highly connected to Madagascar. This work opens fresh questions regarding the drivers of influenza seasonality globally particularly in mid-latitude and less-connected regions to tailor vaccine strategies locally.
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影响因子：
5
作者：
Alonso, Wladimir J.;Viboud, Cecile;Miller, Mark A.
通讯作者：
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影响因子：
64.8
作者：
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通讯作者：
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影响因子：
56.9
作者：
Russell, Colin A.;Jones, Terry C.;Smith, Derek J.
通讯作者：
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影响因子：
4.5
作者：
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通讯作者：
Richard, Vincent
DOI：
10.4269/ajtmh.2009.81.180
发表时间：
2009-07-01
影响因子：
3.3
作者：
Moura, Fernanda E. A.;Perdigao, Anne C. B.;Siqueira, Marilda M.
通讯作者：
Siqueira, Marilda M.