An SIR-type epidemiological model that integrates social distancing as a dynamic law based on point prevalence and socio-behavioral factors.
An SIR-type epidemiological model that integrates social distancing as a dynamic law based on point prevalence and socio-behavioral factors.
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DOI：
10.1038/s41598-021-89492-x
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发表时间：
2021-05-13
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Vogt-Geisse K
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Cabrera M;Córdova-Lepe F;Gutiérrez-Jara JP;Vogt-Geisse K
在传染病的数学模型中对人类行为进行建模是理解和控制疾病传播的关键组成部分。我们提出了一个数学房室模型的易感-传染-删除比较感染曲线的四个不同的功能形式描述的传播率。这取决于个人在日常生活中平均与他人保持的距离。我们假设，这种距离根据两种相反的繁荣之间的平衡而变化：个体在疾病存在时的自我保护反应，以增加社会距离，以及他们在没有疾病时恢复文化依赖的自然社会距离的必要性。我们提出了模拟比较结果，为不同的社会类型的流行点，第一次疫情爆发的峰值大小和发生的时间，峰值，为四个不同的传输率函数形式和参数的利益相关的疏远行为，如：社会的反应速度，以改变社会距离在流行病。我们观察了密切接触社会对疾病传播的脆弱性，也表明某些社交距离行为可能会引发第一次流行病爆发的小高峰，但代价是在流行病爆发后早期发生，观察社会类型之间在这方面的差异。我们还讨论了四种不同传输率的时间振荡的出现，它们的差异，以及这种振荡行为是如何通过社会距离的影响，打破了单峰的活动曲线产生的经典SIR模型。
Modeling human behavior within mathematical models of infectious diseases is a key component to understand and control disease spread. We present a mathematical compartmental model of Susceptible–Infectious–Removed to compare the infected curves given by four different functional forms describing the transmission rate. These depend on the distance that individuals keep on average to others in their daily lives. We assume that this distance varies according to the balance between two opposite thrives: the self-protecting reaction of individuals upon the presence of disease to increase social distancing and their necessity to return to a culturally dependent natural social distance that occurs in the absence of disease. We present simulations to compare results for different society types on point prevalence, the peak size of a first epidemic outbreak and the time of occurrence of that peak, for four different transmission rate functional forms and parameters of interest related to distancing behavior, such as: the reaction velocity of a society to change social distance during an epidemic. We observe the vulnerability to disease spread of close contact societies, and also show that certain social distancing behavior may provoke a small peak of a first epidemic outbreak, but at the expense of it occurring early after the epidemic onset, observing differences in this regard between society types. We also discuss the appearance of temporal oscillations of the four different transmission rates, their differences, and how this oscillatory behavior is impacted through social distancing; breaking the unimodality of the actives-curve produced by the classical SIR-model.
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影响因子：
11.7
作者：
Chowell G;Sattenspiel L;Bansal S;Viboud C
通讯作者：
Viboud C
影响因子：
4.4
作者：
de Koeijer, Aline A.;Boender, Gert Jan;Elbers, Armin R. W.
通讯作者：
Elbers, Armin R. W.
影响因子：
4.3
作者：
Del Valle, S;Hethcote, H;Castillo-Chavez, C
通讯作者：
Castillo-Chavez, C
影响因子：
4.6
作者：
Karlsson, Carl-Joar;Rowlett, Julie
通讯作者：
Rowlett, Julie
影响因子：
4.3
作者：
Gutierrez-Jara, J. P.;Cordova-Lepe, F. D.;Munoz-Quezada, M. T.
通讯作者：
Munoz-Quezada, M. T.