Predicting the Impact of Climate Change on the Distribution of a Neglected Arboviruses Vector (Armigeres subalbatus) in China.
Predicting the Impact of Climate Change on the Distribution of a Neglected Arboviruses Vector (Armigeres subalbatus) in China.
复制标题
预测气候变化对中国被忽视的arboviruses载体（Armigeres subalbatus）分布的影响。
DOI：
10.3390/tropicalmed7120431
复制
发表时间：
2022-12-12
影响因子：
2.9
通讯作者：
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
虫媒病毒的地理边界继续扩大，对全世界数百万人构成重大健康威胁。这种扩大与有效病媒和适宜生境的可得性有关。近白阿蚊（Armigeres subalbatus，Coquillett，1898）是一种常见且被忽视的物种，由于其潜在的寨卡病毒载体能力，人们越来越感兴趣。然而，潜在的分布模式和潜在的驱动因素的Ar。subalbatus仍然未知。在目前的研究中，详细的地图，其潜在的分布在当前以及未来的气候变化情景（SSP 126和SSP 585）的基础上CMIP 6数据，采用MaxEnt模型。结果表明，Ar.温度是影响褐飞虱产卵量的主要因素。平均日较差是塑造Ar分布的最强预测因子。subalbatus，占85.2%。到2050年代和2070年代，Ar。subalbatus将在中国有更广泛的潜在分布。2050年代和2070年代气候变化下有两种适宜的扩张类型。第一种是连续分布扩张，第二种是偶发分布扩张。我们对Ar. subalbatus的适宜分布区在气候变化下发生变化，并为制定未来虫媒病毒的管理策略提供了有用和有见地的信息。
The geographic boundaries of arboviruses continue to expand, posing a major health threat to millions of people around the world. This expansion is related to the availability of effective vectors and suitable habitats. Armigeres subalbatus (Coquillett, 1898), a common and neglected species, is of increasing interest given its potential vector capacity for Zika virus. However, potential distribution patterns and the underlying driving factors of Ar. subalbatus remain unknown. In the current study, detailed maps of their potential distributions were developed under both the current as well as future climate change scenarios (SSP126 and SSP585) based on CMIP6 data, employing the MaxEnt model. The results showed that the distribution of the Ar. subalbatus was mainly affected by temperature. Mean diurnal range was the strongest predictor in shaping the distribution of Ar. subalbatus, with an 85.2% contribution rate. By the 2050s and 2070s, Ar. subalbatus will have a broader potential distribution across China. There are two suitable expansion types under climate change in the 2050s and 2070s. The first type is continuous distribution expansion, and the second type is sporadic distribution expansion. Our comprehensive analysis of Ar. subalbatus’s suitable distribution areas shifts under climate change and provides useful and insightful information for developing management strategies for future arboviruses.
登录
查看更多内容
影响因子：
3.7
作者：
Diagne CT;Diallo D;Faye O;Ba Y;Faye O;Gaye A;Dia I;Faye O;Weaver SC;Sall AA;Diallo M
通讯作者：
Diallo M
从蚊子中分离出寨卡病毒：2016 年中国现场和实验室调查
影响因子：
9.1
作者：
Fu, Shihong;Song, Song;Liang, Guodong
通讯作者：
Liang, Guodong
影响因子：
5.9
作者：
Edren, Susi M. C.;Wisz, Mary S.;Soderkvist, Johan
通讯作者：
Soderkvist, Johan
影响因子：
9.8
作者：
Brown JL;Hill DJ;Dolan AM;Carnaval AC;Haywood AM
通讯作者：
Haywood AM
影响因子：
2.7
作者：
Brown JL;Bennett JR;French CM
通讯作者：
French CM