Spatial-temporal distribution of tropical cyclone activity on the eastern sea area of China since the late 1940s

Spatial-temporal distribution of tropical cyclone activity on the eastern sea area of China since the late 1940s
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1940年代末以来中国东部海域热带气旋活动的时空分布

DOI:
10.1016/j.ecss.2022.108067
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发表时间:
2022-09
期刊:
Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science
影响因子:
--
通讯作者:
Jianjun Jia
Jianjun Jia
中科院分区:
其他
文献类型:
--
作者:
Chaoran Xu;Yang Yang;Fan Zhang;Renzhi Li;Zhanhai Li;Ya Ping Wang;Jianjun Jia

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在所有海洋灾害中,风暴潮造成的损失最为严重,东亚是世界上受热带气旋影响最严重的地区之一。随着全球平均气温的升高,热带气旋活动的未来变化是东亚各国十分关注的问题。然而,由于不同TC数据集之间的不一致性,目前对中国东部海域TC活动的时空分布和趋势还没有统一的认识。本文利用Fujita-Takahashi公式计算了1949-2019年影响东亚夏季风的所有TC风场,获得了空间分辨率为0.1° × 0.1°的新TC数据集。在此基础上,分析了TC活动的时空变化。利用Mann Kendall趋势检验,可以将东亚太平洋热带气旋活动分为3个阶段(1949-1967、1968-1993、1994-2019),并与厄尔尼诺-南方涛动、太阳黑子活动和太平洋年代际涛动密切相关。三个阶段TC的累积数量和持续时间的比较表明,向沿海和向北的趋势增加。为了解决这个问题的陆架风暴沉积记录的ESAC,我们比较了发表的风暴沉积记录检索从几个核心与台风影响数据从同一网站的基础上,本研究的数据集。我们发现,风暴沉积记录的保存潜力ESAC的范围从8%到33%,具有较高的保存潜力在浅水。研究结果揭示了热带气旋影响的分布和变化规律,可为沿海重点保护区的防灾减灾规划和调整提供科学依据,也可更好地评估海洋沉积记录的价值。我们建立了一个新的更全面的数据集(0.1° × 0.1°)来分析海上热带气旋(TC)活动的时空分布。同样由于TC效应的纬向和经向影响,未来我国北方沿海城市可能遭受更严重的风暴潮灾害。我们还包括沉积记录,以帮助我们了解更多的古代TC活动。·建立了一个新的更全面的数据集(0.1° × 0.1°),用于分析海上热带气旋(TC)活动的时空分布。·由于TC效应的纬向和经向影响,未来我国北方沿海城市可能遭受更严重的风暴潮灾害。·包括沉积记录,以了解更古老的气旋活动。
Among all marine hazards, storm surges cause the most severe damage, and East Asia is one of the regions in the world most affected by tropical cyclones (TCs). With the increase in global mean temperature, the future changes of tropical cyclone (TC) activities are of great concern in East Asian countries. However, due to the inconsistency among different TC datasets, there is no uniform understanding of the spatial and temporal distribution and trends of TC activities in the eastern sea area of China (ESAC). In this study, all TC wind fields affecting ESAC during 1949–2019 were calculated using the Fujita-Takahashi formula, and a new TC dataset with a spatial resolution of 0.1° × 0.1° was thus obtained. Based on this dataset, the spatial-temporal variations of TC activity were analyzed. Three stages (1949–1967, 1968–1993, 1994–2019) of TC activities in ESAC can be identified using Mann Kendall Trend Test, which is closely related to El Niño-Southern Oscillation, sunspot activity, and Pacific Decadal Oscillation. A comparison of the accumulative number and duration of TCs in the three stages shows increasing trend toward the coasts and an northward. To address the issue of shelf storm deposition records on ESAC, we compared the published storm depositional records retrieved from several cores with typhoon impact data from the same sites based on the dataset of this study. We found that the preservation potential of the storm deposition record on ESAC ranged from 8% to 33%, with a high preservation potential in shallow water. These findings reveal the distribution and variability of TC impacts, which can be used to provide a scientific basis for disaster prevention and mitigation planning and adjustment of key coastal protection zones, as well as to evaluate the value of marine sedimentary records better. We have established a new and more comprehensive dataset (0.1° × 0.1°) to analyze the spatial-temporal distribution of tropical cyclone(TC) activity on the seas. Also due to the latitudinal and longitudinal effects of TC effect, the coastal cities in northern China may suffer from more severe storm surge disasters in the future. We also included sedimentary records to help us understand more ancient TC activity. • A new and more comprehensive dataset has established (0.1° × 0.1°) to analyze the spatial-temporal distribution of tropical cyclone(TC) activity on the seas. • Due to the latitudinal and longitudinal effects of TC effect, the coastal cities in northern China may suffer from more severe storm surge disasters in the future. • Including sedimentary records to understand more ancient cyclone activity.
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