Predicted slowdown in the rate of Atlantic sea ice loss
Predicted slowdown in the rate of Atlantic sea ice loss
复制标题
预计大西洋海冰流失速度将放缓
DOI：
10.1002/2015gl065364
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发表时间：
2015
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
G. Danabasoglu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
S. Yeager;A. Karspeck;G. Danabasoglu
从历史气候状态初始化并受人为强迫影响的耦合气候模式可以对北大西洋亚极区海面温度变化作出熟练的年代际预测。这种技巧主要来自初始化，它改善了海洋环流和相关的向极地热输送缓慢变化的表现。我们表明，对北极冬季海冰范围的年代际趋势的熟练预测也是可能的，特别是在大西洋地区。外部辐射强迫有助于回溯年代际海冰预测，但初始化提供的更真实的海洋热输运异常表示大大提高了空间和时间精度。最近的预测表明，在世纪之交开始的热盐环流的自旋下降将继续下去，这将导致未来几年大西洋冬季海冰范围的近中性年代际趋势，并在某些地区出现年代际增长。
Coupled climate models initialized from historical climate states and subject to anthropogenic forcings can produce skillful decadal predictions of sea surface temperature change in the subpolar North Atlantic. The skill derives largely from initialization, which improves the representation of slow changes in ocean circulation and associated poleward heat transport. We show that skillful predictions of decadal trends in Arctic winter sea ice extent are also possible, particularly in the Atlantic sector. External radiative forcing contributes to the skill of retrospective decadal sea ice predictions, but the spatial and temporal accuracy is greatly enhanced by the more realistic representation of ocean heat transport anomalies afforded by initialization. Recent forecasts indicate that a spin‐down of the thermohaline circulation that began near the turn of the century will continue, and this will result in near‐neutral decadal trends in Atlantic winter sea ice extent in the coming years, with decadal growth in select regions.
影响因子：
6.7
作者：
Day, J. J.;Hargreaves, J. C.;Abe-Ouchi, A.
通讯作者：
Abe-Ouchi, A.
基于海洋状态估计的北大西洋热传输的潜在可预测性
影响因子：
4.9
作者：
Tiedje B;Köhl A;Baehr J
通讯作者：
Baehr J
影响因子：
5.2
作者：
Tietsche, S.;Day, J. J.;Hawkins, E.
通讯作者：
Hawkins, E.