Effects of Climate Change and Human Activities on Surface Runoff in the Luan River Basin
Effects of Climate Change and Human Activities on Surface Runoff in the Luan River Basin
复制标题
气候变化和人类活动对滦河流域地表径流的影响
DOI：
10.1155/2015/740239
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发表时间：
2015-10
影响因子：
2.9
通讯作者：
Wang, Feiyu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Zhan, Chesheng;Sun, Fubao;Du, Hong;Wang, Feiyu
量化气候变化和人类活动对径流变化的影响是气候变化和水文学研究的重点。本文提出了一种集成的方法，采用基于Budyko的傅氏模型，水文模拟，气候弹性的方法来分离的两个驱动因素对地表径流的影响，在滦河流域，中国。采用基于Budyko的Fu模型和双质量曲线法分析了1958~2009年径流量的变化。在此基础上，应用两种水文模型（分布式土壤和水资源评估工具模型和集总SIMHYD模型）和七种气候弹性方法（包括一种非参数方法和六种基于Budyko的方法）估算了气候变化和人类活动对径流变化的贡献。结果表明，所有的量化方法都是有效的，9种方法得到的结果基本一致。研究期内，气候变化对径流变化的影响占28.3~46.8%，人类活动对径流变化的影响占53.2~ 71.7%，说明气候变化和人类活动对径流变化的影响都很显著，人类活动的影响相对大于气候变化的影响。
Quantifying the effects of climate change and human activities on runoff changes is the focus of climate change and hydrological research. This paper presents an integrated method employing the Budyko-based Fu model, hydrological modeling, and climate elasticity approaches to separate the effects of the two driving factors on surface runoff in the Luan River basin, China. The Budyko-based Fu model and the double mass curve method are used to analyze runoff changes during the period 1958~2009. Then two types of hydrological models (the distributed Soil and Water Assessment Tool model and the lumped SIMHYD model) and seven climate elasticity methods (including a nonparametric method and six Budyko-based methods) are applied to estimate the contributions of climate change and human activities to runoff change. The results show that all quantification methods are effective, and the results obtained by the nine methods are generally consistent. During the study period, the effects of climate change on runoff change accounted for 28.3~46.8% while those of human activities contributed with 53.2~71.7%, indicating that both factors have significant effects on the runoff decline in the basin, and that the effects of human activities are relatively stronger than those of climate change.
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影响因子：
--
作者：
X. Liu;C. Liu;Y. Luo;M. Zhang;J. Xia
通讯作者：
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影响因子：
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作者：
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影响因子：
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作者：
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M. Hobbins;J. Ramirez;T. Brown
DOI：
--
发表时间：
2003
期刊：
Advances in Water Science
影响因子：
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作者：
Xu Jiong-xin
通讯作者：
Xu Jiong-xin
DOI：
10.1017/cbo9781139207249.009
发表时间：
2012
期刊：
--
影响因子：
--
作者：
W. Marsden
通讯作者：
W. Marsden