An Integrated Assessment Model for Helping the United States Sea Scallop (Placopecten magellanicus) Fishery Plan Ahead for Ocean Acidification and Warming.
An Integrated Assessment Model for Helping the United States Sea Scallop (Placopecten magellanicus) Fishery Plan Ahead for Ocean Acidification and Warming.
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.pone.0124145
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发表时间：
2015
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Doney SC
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Cooley SR;Rheuban JE;Hart DR;Luu V;Glover DM;Hare JA;Doney SC
海洋酸化是由大气二氧化碳吸收引起的海洋化学的逐渐变化，可能会对包括贝类在内的一些海洋资源产生负面影响。大西洋扇贝(Placopecten Magellanicus)支持美国最重要的单一鱼种商业渔业之一。谨慎的管理似乎是影响扇贝种群的最有力的短期因素，但在未来几十年，扇贝将越来越多地受到海洋变暖和海洋酸化等全球环境变化的影响。在本文中，我们描述了一个综合评估模型(IAM)，它数值模拟了美国商业扇贝渔业的海洋、种群动态和社会经济关系。我们的主要目标是通过提供对该系统的短期和长期洞察，并使用简化的模型系统生成关于海洋酸化、温度上升、捕捞压力和社会经济因素对渔业的相对影响的详细的政策相关信息，从而丰富资源管理的讨论。该模型从目前用于海水扇贝渔业管理的关系和数据开始，增加了基于静态经济理论的社会经济决策，并包括了二氧化碳排放造成的海洋生物地球化学变化。该模型巧妙地再现了2000年以来的扇贝种群动态、市场动态和海水碳酸盐化学。它表明，根据RCP 8.5二氧化碳排放和当前的捕捞规则，到2050年，海扇贝的捕捞可能会大幅下降，假设海洋酸化通过减少补充和减缓增长来影响麦哲伦扇贝，而海洋变暖促进增长。未来的工作将探索不同的经济和管理方案，并测试海洋酸化对其他扇贝生物参数的潜在影响可能如何影响社会生态系统。未来还需要开展关于海洋酸化对海扇贝影响的实证工作。
Ocean acidification, the progressive change in ocean chemistry caused by uptake of atmospheric CO2, is likely to affect some marine resources negatively, including shellfish. The Atlantic sea scallop (Placopecten magellanicus) supports one of the most economically important single-species commercial fisheries in the United States. Careful management appears to be the most powerful short-term factor affecting scallop populations, but in the coming decades scallops will be increasingly influenced by global environmental changes such as ocean warming and ocean acidification. In this paper, we describe an integrated assessment model (IAM) that numerically simulates oceanographic, population dynamic, and socioeconomic relationships for the U.S. commercial sea scallop fishery. Our primary goal is to enrich resource management deliberations by offering both short- and long-term insight into the system and generating detailed policy-relevant information about the relative effects of ocean acidification, temperature rise, fishing pressure, and socioeconomic factors on the fishery using a simplified model system. Starting with relationships and data used now for sea scallop fishery management, the model adds socioeconomic decision making based on static economic theory and includes ocean biogeochemical change resulting from CO2 emissions. The model skillfully reproduces scallop population dynamics, market dynamics, and seawater carbonate chemistry since 2000. It indicates sea scallop harvests could decline substantially by 2050 under RCP 8.5 CO2 emissions and current harvest rules, assuming that ocean acidification affects P. magellanicus by decreasing recruitment and slowing growth, and that ocean warming increases growth. Future work will explore different economic and management scenarios and test how potential impacts of ocean acidification on other scallop biological parameters may influence the social-ecological system. Future empirical work on the effect of ocean acidification on sea scallops is also needed.
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影响因子：
6.7
作者：
Cooley, Sarah R.;Lucey, Noelle;Doney, Scott C.
通讯作者：
Doney, Scott C.
影响因子：
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ARCHER, D
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通讯作者：
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影响因子：
4.5
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