The Impact of Measurement Error in Regression Models Using Police Recorded Crime Rates
The Impact of Measurement Error in Regression Models Using Police Recorded Crime Rates
复制标题
使用警方记录的犯罪率回归模型中测量误差的影响
DOI：
10.1007/s10940-022-09557-6
复制
发表时间：
2022
影响因子：
3.6
通讯作者：
Pina-Sánchez J
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Pina-Sánchez J
目标评估警方记录的犯罪率测量误差在多大程度上影响探索犯罪原因和后果的回归模型的估计。方法我们重点关注线性模型，其中犯罪率以原始规模或对数转换作为响应或解释变量。考虑了两种测量误差机制：以犯罪记录不足的形式出现的系统误差，以及以跨地区记录不一致的形式出现的随机误差。这种测量误差机制影响模型参数的程度可以使用形式符号以代数方式证明，并使用模拟以图形方式证明。结果测量误差的影响在不同的设置中变化很大。根据犯罪类型、空间分辨率，以及警方在模型中记录犯罪率的位置和方式，测量误差引起的偏差可能可以忽略不计到严重，甚至影响来自没有测量误差的解释变量的估计。我们还演示了在引入犯罪率作为响应变量的模型中，如何使用对数转换来消除测量误差的影响。结论 大部分探索犯罪影响和后果的证据基础的有效性受到质疑。在根据回归模型和警方记录的犯罪率解释文献研究结果时，我们敦促研究人员考虑此处显示的偏差效应。如果预期测量误差引起的偏差不可忽略，未来的研究还应该预测其研究结果的影响，并采用敏感性分析。
ObjectivesAssess the extent to which measurement error in police recorded crime rates impact the estimates of regression models exploring the causes and consequences of crime.MethodsWe focus on linear models where crime rates are included either as the response or as an explanatory variable, in their original scale or log-transformed. Two measurement error mechanisms are considered, systematic errors in the form of under-recorded crime, and random errors in the form of recording inconsistencies across areas. The extent to which such measurement error mechanisms impact model parameters is demonstrated algebraically using formal notation, and graphically using simulations.ResultsThe impact of measurement error is highly variable across different settings. Depending on the crime type, the spatial resolution, but also where and how police recorded crime rates are introduced in the model, the measurement error induced biases could range from negligible to severe, affecting even estimates from explanatory variables free of measurement error. We also demonstrate how in models where crime rates are introduced as the response variable, the impact of measurement error could be eliminated using log-transformations.ConclusionsThe validity of a large share of the evidence base exploring the effects and consequences of crime is put into question. In interpreting findings from the literature relying on regression models and police recorded crime rates, we urge researchers to consider the biasing effects shown here. Future studies should also anticipate the impact in their findings and employ sensitivity analysis if the expected measurement error induced bias is non-negligible.
登录
查看更多内容
经典测试理论的公理和主要结果
DOI：
--
发表时间：
1965
期刊：
影响因子：
--
作者：
M. R. Novick
通讯作者：
M. R. Novick
影响因子：
2.2
作者：
Han, Lu;Bandyopadhyay, Siddhartha;Bhattacharya, Samrat
通讯作者：
Bhattacharya, Samrat
向警方报案, 1992-2000
DOI：
--
发表时间：
2003
期刊：
影响因子：
--
作者：
C. Rennison
通讯作者：
C. Rennison
影响因子：
1.8
作者：
Ashby, Matthew P. J.
通讯作者：
Ashby, Matthew P. J.
威慑犯罪分子：盗窃和暴力的理性选择模型
DOI：
--
发表时间：
2006
期刊：
影响因子：
--
作者：
R. Matsueda;D. Kreager;D. Huizinga
通讯作者：
D. Huizinga