New climate models reveal faster and larger increases in Arctic precipitation than previously projected.
New climate models reveal faster and larger increases in Arctic precipitation than previously projected.
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DOI：
10.1038/s41467-021-27031-y
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发表时间：
2021-11-30
影响因子：
16.6
通讯作者：
Screen JA
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
McCrystall MR;Stroeve J;Serreze M;Forbes BC;Screen JA
随着北极继续以比地球其他地方更快的速度变暖，越来越多的证据表明，该地区正在经历前所未有的环境变化。预计整个21世纪的水文循环将会加剧，开放水域面积的扩大导致蒸发增加，降水增加。耦合模式比对项目（CMIP6）第六阶段的最新预估表明，到2100年，北极变暖和海冰损失的速度将比以前的预估更快，因此，水文循环的变化将更大、更快。CMIP6的北极降水（降雨）增加速度要快于CMIP5，这主要是由于全球变暖和向极地输送更多的水分、北极放大和海冰损失更大以及降水对北极变暖的敏感性增加。预计北极夏季和秋季由雪主导向雨主导的转变将提前几十年发生，且全球变暖程度较低，可能低于1.5°C，对气候、生态系统和社会经济产生深远影响。北极比地球上其他地区变暖得更快，这也影响了降水。在这里，作者表明最新的CMIP6模型集合显示北极变暖和海冰损失更快，导致北极从雪主导到雨主导的转变比以前认为的要早。
As the Arctic continues to warm faster than the rest of the planet, evidence mounts that the region is experiencing unprecedented environmental change. The hydrological cycle is projected to intensify throughout the twenty-first century, with increased evaporation from expanding open water areas and more precipitation. The latest projections from the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) point to more rapid Arctic warming and sea-ice loss by the year 2100 than in previous projections, and consequently, larger and faster changes in the hydrological cycle. Arctic precipitation (rainfall) increases more rapidly in CMIP6 than in CMIP5 due to greater global warming and poleward moisture transport, greater Arctic amplification and sea-ice loss and increased sensitivity of precipitation to Arctic warming. The transition from a snow- to rain-dominated Arctic in the summer and autumn is projected to occur decades earlier and at a lower level of global warming, potentially under 1.5 °C, with profound climatic, ecosystem and socio-economic impacts. The Arctic warms faster than other areas of the planet, which also influences precipitation. Here, the authors show that the latest CMIP6 model ensemble shows a faster Arctic warming and sea-ice loss, causing an earlier transition from a snow- to a rain-dominated Arctic than previously thought.
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影响因子：
3.3
作者：
Forbes BC;Kumpula T;Meschtyb N;Laptander R;Macias-Fauria M;Zetterberg P;Verdonen M;Skarin A;Kim KY;Boisvert LN;Stroeve JC;Bartsch A
通讯作者：
Bartsch A
影响因子：
3.6
作者：
Barrett, Andrew P.;Stroeve, Julienne C.;Serreze, Mark C.
通讯作者：
Serreze, Mark C.
影响因子：
5.2
作者：
Fettweis, X.;Franco, B.;Gallee, H.
通讯作者：
Gallee, H.
影响因子：
5.1
作者：
Gidden, Matthew J.;Riahi, Keywan;Takahashi, Kiyoshi
通讯作者：
Takahashi, Kiyoshi
影响因子：
11.6
作者：
Hollesen, J.;Elberling, B.;Jansson, P. E.
通讯作者：
Jansson, P. E.