The Benefits of Vaccinating With the First Available COVID-19 Coronavirus Vaccine.
The Benefits of Vaccinating With the First Available COVID-19 Coronavirus Vaccine.
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DOI：
10.1016/j.amepre.2021.01.001
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发表时间：
2021-05
影响因子：
5.5
通讯作者：
Lee BY
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bartsch SM;O'Shea KJ;Wedlock PT;Strych U;Ferguson MC;Bottazzi ME;Randall SL;Siegmund SS;Cox SN;Hotez PJ;Lee BY
在大流行期间，在许多情况下，第一批可用的疫苗可能不如仍在开发中的疫苗或尚未准备好分发的疫苗具有高效力，这就提出了一个问题，即是使用现有疫苗更好，还是等待更好。2020年，该团队开发了一个计算模型，该模型代表了美国人口、COVID-19冠状病毒的传播，以及具有不同可能效力（预防感染或减少严重疾病）的疫苗和疫苗接种时间，以估计疫苗接种的临床和经济价值。除了少数情况外，主要是在大流行的早期和预防感染的疫苗可用时，等待具有更高效力的疫苗会导致在大流行期间额外的住院治疗和费用。例如，如果在10%的人口已经感染的情况下，有一种预防感染效力为50%的疫苗可用，那么等到40%的人口感染时才有一种预防感染效力为80%的疫苗，结果会导致1560万额外病例和150万额外住院治疗，直接医疗费用增加206亿美元，生产力损失增加124亿美元。这项研究表明，在相对较少的情况下，值得放弃第一种COVID-19疫苗，转而使用在大流行后期可用的疫苗，即使后一种疫苗的效力要高得多。
During a pandemic, there are many situations in which the first available vaccines may not have as high effectiveness as vaccines that are still under development or vaccines that are not yet ready for distribution, raising the question of whether it is better to go with what is available now or wait. In 2020, the team developed a computational model that represents the U.S. population, COVID-19 coronavirus spread, and vaccines with different possible efficacies (to prevent infection or to reduce severe disease) and vaccination timings to estimate the clinical and economic value of vaccination. Except for a limited number of situations, mainly early on in a pandemic and for a vaccine that prevents infection, when an initial vaccine is available, waiting for a vaccine with a higher efficacy results in additional hospitalizations and costs over the course of the pandemic. For example, if a vaccine with a 50% efficacy in preventing infection becomes available when 10% of the population has already been infected, waiting until 40% of the population are infected for a vaccine with 80% efficacy in preventing infection results in 15.6 million additional cases and 1.5 million additional hospitalizations, costing $20.6 billion more in direct medical costs and $12.4 billion more in productivity losses. This study shows that there are relatively few situations in which it is worth foregoing the first COVID-19 vaccine available in favor of a vaccine that becomes available later on in the pandemic even if the latter vaccine has a substantially higher efficacy.
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DOI：
10.1056/nejmoa2034577
发表时间：
2020-12-31
期刊：
The New England journal of medicine
影响因子：
--
作者：
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DOI：
10.1056/nejmoa2035389
发表时间：
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期刊：
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影响因子：
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通讯作者：
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影响因子：
5.5
作者：
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影响因子：
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