Eliciting preferences for truth-telling in a survey of politicians
Eliciting preferences for truth-telling in a survey of politicians
复制标题
在对政治家的调查中找出说真话的偏好
DOI：
--
复制
发表时间：
2020
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
A. Gallego
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
K. A. Janezic;A. Gallego
选民想要准确评价政治家的执政表现，往往依赖不完整的信息，不确定政治家的话是否可信。诚实在政治中受到高度重视，因为反对撒谎的政治家原则上应该提供更可信的信息。尽管诚实在政治中很重要，但没有科学证据表明政治家讨厌撒谎。我们测量了816名当选政治家的诚实偏好，并研究了与诚实相关的可观察特征。我们发现，在我们的样本中，反对撒谎的政治家的连任率较低，这表明诚实在政治上可能没有回报。诚实是政治家最看重的品质之一。然而，由于谎言往往不被发现，很难研究一些政治家是否比其他人更诚实。本文研究了在一个大样本的政治家在一个受控的设置与个人特征的相关性。我们设计并嵌入了一个游戏，在816位西班牙市长的调查中，用非货币的方法激励说谎。市长们首先被问到他们对获得一份关于调查结果的详细报告有多大兴趣，在调查结束时，他们必须掷硬币决定是否会收到这份报告。因为正面朝上的概率是已知的，我们可以估计出为了获得报告而撒谎的市长的比例。我们发现，一个大的和统计上显着比例的市长撒谎。作为两大政党成员的市长撒谎的次数要多得多。我们进一步发现，女性和男性同样可能撒谎。最后，我们发现在下一次市政选举中，诚实与连任之间存在负相关关系，这表明不诚实可能有助于政治家在办公室生存。
Significance Voters who would like to accurately evaluate the performance of politicians in office often rely on incomplete information and are uncertain whether politicians’ words can be trusted. Honesty is highly valued in politics because politicians who are averse to lying should in principle provide more trustworthy information. Despite the importance of honesty in politics, there is no scientific evidence on politicians’ lying aversion. We measured preferences for truth-telling in a sample of 816 elected politicians and study observable characteristics associated with honesty. We find that in our sample, politicians who are averse to lying have lower reelection rates, suggesting that honesty may not pay off in politics. Honesty is one of the most valued traits in politicians. Yet, because lies often remain undiscovered, it is difficult to study if some politicians are more honest than others. This paper examines which individual characteristics are correlated with truth-telling in a controlled setting in a large sample of politicians. We designed and embedded a game that incentivizes lying with a nonmonetary method in a survey answered by 816 Spanish mayors. Mayors were first asked how interested they were in obtaining a detailed report about the survey results, and at the end of the survey, they had to flip a coin to find out whether they would be sent the report. Because the probability of heads is known, we can estimate the proportion of mayors who lied to obtain the report. We find that a large and statistically significant proportion of mayors lied. Mayors that are members of the two major political parties lied significantly more. We further find that women and men were equally likely to lie. Finally, we find a negative relationship between truth-telling and reelection in the next municipal elections, which suggests that dishonesty might help politicians survive in office.
影响因子：
9.8
作者：
Abeler, Johannes;Becker, Anke;Falk, Armin
通讯作者：
Falk, Armin
影响因子：
3.6
作者：
Fischbacher, Urs;Foellmi-Heusi, Franziska
通讯作者：
Foellmi-Heusi, Franziska