Intermodel Spread in the Northern Hemisphere Stratospheric Polar Vortex Response to Climate Change in the CMIP5 Models
Intermodel Spread in the Northern Hemisphere Stratospheric Polar Vortex Response to Climate Change in the CMIP5 Models
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北半球平流层极地涡旋对 CMIP5 模式气候变化的响应
DOI：
10.1029/2019gl085545
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发表时间：
2019
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Seager, Richard
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Wu, Yutian;Simpson, Isla R.;Seager, Richard
本研究探讨了耦合模式相互比较项目第5阶段（CMIP 5）模式中北方半球冬季平流层极涡变化对人为温室气体增加的模式间传播。以前提出的极涡对气候变化响应的机制，基于对大气模式的分析，被发现不足以解释CMIP 5中耦合模式中的模式间传播。进一步发现，解决驻波驱动极涡区域占不到30%的模型间传播，和模型间的差异，在垂直和垂直波传播的波驱动的差异。研究结果要求对平流层环流反应进行详细的预算分析，包括通过动力学和变率模型相互比较项目进行的解析和参数化过程。研究结果还强调了需要改进对未来预计极涡变化和模型间传播的理论理解。
This study investigates the intermodel spread of the Northern Hemisphere winter stratospheric polar vortex change to anthropogenic greenhouse gas increase in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models. Previous proposed mechanisms for the polar vortex response to climate change, based on analysis of atmosphere‐only models, are found inadequate to explain the intermodel spread in the coupled models in CMIP5. It is further found that resolved stationary wave driving in the polar vortex region accounts for less than 30% of the intermodel spread, and intermodel differences in both the vertical and meridional wave propagation contribute to differences in the wave driving. The results call for a detailed budget analysis of the stratospheric circulation response by including both the resolved and parameterized processes through the Dynamics and Variability Model Intercomparison Project. The results also highlight a need for an improved theoretical understanding of future projected polar vortex change and intermodel spread.
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影响因子：
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作者：
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