Short-term effects of meteorological factors on pediatric hand, foot, and mouth disease in Guangdong, China: a multi-city time-series analysis.
Short-term effects of meteorological factors on pediatric hand, foot, and mouth disease in Guangdong, China: a multi-city time-series analysis.
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气象因素对中国广东儿童手足口病的短期影响：多城市时间序列分析。
DOI：
10.1186/s12879-016-1846-y
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发表时间：
2016-09-29
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Liu QY
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Guo C;Yang J;Guo Y;Ou QQ;Shen SQ;Ou CQ;Liu QY
文献显示不同城市手足口病的气象效应不一致。本研究旨在探讨气象因素对儿童手足口病发病的影响及地理因素的潜在影响。基于2009-2013年中国广东省8个主要城市的日时间序列数据，采用混合广义加性模型估计城市气象对儿童手足口病的影响。然后，进行随机效应多变量荟萃分析，得出综合风险，并探讨城市层面因素解释的异质性。共有400408例儿童手足口病（0 ~ 14岁儿童），年发病率为16.6 / 1000，以男性和3岁以下儿童为主。每日平均温度与儿童手足口病病例呈正相关，与中位温度（23.5°C）相比，在第95百分位温度（30.5°C）时，最高的综合相对风险（RR）为1.52 （95% CI: 1.30-1.77）。高相对湿度的显著非线性积极效应也被观察到，在相对湿度的第99百分位（86.9%），与中位数（78%）相比，手足口病的风险增加了13% （RR = 1.13, 95% CI: 1.00-1.28）。结果表明，城市间的地理差异与城市的经纬度显著相关，异质性可解释为32%。日平均气温和相对湿度对儿童手足口病的影响呈非线性和延迟效应，且不同城市的影响存在差异。这些发现为全面了解气候对儿童手足口病的影响以及当局采取有针对性的干预和措施来控制手足口病的发生和传播提供了重要证据。本文的在线版本（doi:10.1186/s12879-016-1846-y）包含补充材料，授权用户可以使用。
Literature shows inconsistency in meteorological effects on Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) in different cities. This multi-city study aims to investigate the meteorological effects on pediatric HFMD occurrences and the potential effect modification by geographic factors. Based on daily time-series data in eight major cities in Guangdong, China during 2009–2013, mixed generalized additive models were employed to estimate city-specific meteorological effects on pediatric HFMD. Then, a random-effect multivariate meta-analysis was conducted to obtain the pooled risks and to explore heterogeneity explained by city-level factors. There were a total of 400,408 pediatric HFMD cases (children aged 0–14 years old) with an annual incidence rate of 16.6 cases per 1,000 children, clustered in males and children under 3 years old. Daily average temperature was positively associated with pediatric HFMD cases with the highest pooled relative risk (RR) of 1.52 (95 % CI: 1.30–1.77) at the 95th percentile of temperature (30.5 °C) as compared to the median temperature (23.5 °C). Significant non-linear positive effects of high relative humidity were also observed with a 13 % increase (RR = 1.13, 95 % CI: 1.00–1.28) in the risk of HFMD at the 99th percentile of relative humidity (86.9 %) as compared to the median value (78 %). The effect estimates showed geographic variations among the cities which was significantly associated with city’s latitude and longitude with an explained heterogeneity of 32 %. Daily average temperature and relative humidity had non-linear and delayed effects on pediatric HFMD and the effects varied across different cities. These findings provide important evidence for comprehensive understanding of the climatic effects on pediatric HFMD and for the authority to take targeted interventions and measures to control the occurrence and transmission of HFMD. The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12879-016-1846-y) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
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影响因子：
4.5
作者：
Kim SJ;Kim JH;Kang JH;Kim DS;Kim KH;Kim KH;Kim YH;Chung JY;Bin JH;Jung DE;Kim JH;Kim HM;Cheon DS;Kang BH;Seo SY;Enteroviruses Complications Working Group
通讯作者：
Enteroviruses Complications Working Group
影响因子：
2
作者：
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通讯作者：
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影响因子：
8
作者：
Chen, Kow-Tong;Chang, Hsiao-Ling;Yang, Jyh-Yuan
通讯作者：
Yang, Jyh-Yuan
影响因子：
4.2
作者：
Li, T.;Yang, Z.;Wang, M.
通讯作者：
Wang, M.
利用地理加权回归模型研究中国手足口病发病率的决定因素
影响因子：
3.7
作者：
Hu M;Li Z;Wang J;Jia L;Liao Y;Lai S;Guo Y;Zhao D;Yang W
通讯作者：
Yang W