Restored relationship between ENSO and Indian summer monsoon rainfall around 1999/2000.
Restored relationship between ENSO and Indian summer monsoon rainfall around 1999/2000.
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DOI：
10.1016/j.xinn.2021.100102
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发表时间：
2021-05-28
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Huang P
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Yang X;Huang P
厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（ENSO）在20世纪初被认为是印度夏季季风降雨（ISMR）的主要预测因子。自1970年代以来，观测到厄尔尼诺/南方涛动与国际磁共振的关系明显减弱。在这里，我们发现自1999/2000年以来ENSO-ISMR关系的明显恢复。这种恢复关系与ENSO演变的年代际转换以及与之相关的热带大西洋海表温度异常（SSTA）密切相关。1979-1997年夏季ENSO事件主要是前一个冬季的延续，它可以驱动大西洋的表观厄尔尼诺海温异常，抵消ENSO对ISMR的影响，减弱ENSO与ISMR的关系。相比之下，当ENSO事件从晚春新出现时，正如最近在2000-2018年期间所做的那样，相关的热带大西洋SSTA较弱，并转移到热带北大西洋，这可以抵消大西洋厄尔尼诺的贡献并加强ENSO-ISMR关系。我们发现，ENSO的演变的多样性，继续从前一个冬天或出现在晚春，是扰动ENSO-ISMR关系在最近的时代，热带大西洋SSTA的关键桥梁的主导因素。这一发现应被考虑在我们的努力，以提高ISMR预测。1999/2000年以来，ENSO与ISMR之间的关系逐渐恢复，ENSO演变的转折是ENSO继续或出现的主导因素，热带大西洋海温异常对ENSO演变的响应是关键的桥梁
El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) was identified as the dominant predictor for the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) in the early 1900s. An apparent weakening of the ENSO–ISMR relationship has been observed since the 1970s. Here, we found a clear restoration of the ENSO–ISMR relationship since 1999/2000. This restoring relationship is closely linked to the interdecadal transition of ENSO evolution and the associated sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) over the tropical Atlantic. During 1979–1997, summer ENSO events mainly continued from the previous winter, which can drive apparent Atlantic Niña SSTAs to offset ENSO's impact on ISMR and weaken the ENSO–ISMR relationship. In contrast, when ENSO events newly emerge from late spring, as they have done more recently during 2000–2018, the associated tropical Atlantic SSTAs are weak and shift to the tropical North Atlantic, which can offset the contribution of Atlantic Niña and reinforce the ENSO–ISMR relationship. We identified that the diversity of ENSO's evolution, continuing from the previous winter or emerging from late spring, is the dominant factor perturbing the ENSO–ISMR relationship in recent epochs, with tropical Atlantic SSTAs as the crucial bridge. This finding should be considered in our efforts to improve ISMR prediction. The relationship between ENSO and ISMR has been restoring since 1999/2000 The transition of ENSO's evolution, continuing or emerging, is the dominant factor The response of tropical Atlantic SSTAs to ENSO's evolution are the crucial bridge
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