Space-Time Patterns, Change, and Propagation of COVID-19 Risk Relative to the Intervention Scenarios in Bangladesh.
Space-Time Patterns, Change, and Propagation of COVID-19 Risk Relative to the Intervention Scenarios in Bangladesh.
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DOI：
10.3390/ijerph17165911
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发表时间：
2020-08-14
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Dewan A
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Masrur A;Yu M;Luo W;Dewan A
新型冠状病毒（COVID-19）大流行仍然是全球重大的公共卫生威胁，特别是在孟加拉国等人口稠密且医疗保健设施不足的国家。虽然早期发现和隔离被认为是遏制疾病传播的重要非药物干预 (NPI) 措施，但由于社会和经济原因（即教育程度低、公众意识淡薄、大规模失业），这在发展中国家可能无法切实实施。因此，为了阐明与 NPI 状态（例如社交距离）相关的 COVID-19 传播动态，本研究分别使用孟加拉国及其首都达卡市的区和分区级别的前瞻性扫描统计数据进行了时空分析。自四月初以来，达卡大城市一直是风险最高的“活跃”集群。最近，孟加拉国中部和东南部地区出现了 COVID-19 传播的高风险。检测到的 COVID-19 感染的时空进展表明，孟加拉国在早期阶段（即 2020 年 3 月）经历了社区级传播，主要是由从欧洲和中东冠状病毒震中返回的孟加拉国公民引入的。违反非营利机构行为与孟加拉国周边孵化期后新的高风险集群的出现之间存在潜在联系。这项针对孟加拉国的研究得出了对 COVID-19 传播动态的新颖见解，为全球资源匮乏国家的早期准备和务实的 NPI 措施提供了重要的政策指南，以有效应对传染病。
The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic continues to be a significant public health threat worldwide, particularly in densely populated countries such as Bangladesh with inadequate health care facilities. While early detection and isolation were identified as important non-pharmaceutical intervention (NPI) measures for containing the disease spread, this may not have been pragmatically implementable in developing countries due to social and economic reasons (i.e., poor education, less public awareness, massive unemployment). Hence, to elucidate COVID-19 transmission dynamics with respect to the NPI status—e.g., social distancing—this study conducted spatio-temporal analysis using the prospective scanning statistic at district and sub-district levels in Bangladesh and its capital, Dhaka city, respectively. Dhaka megacity has remained the highest-risk “active” cluster since early April. Lately, the central and south eastern regions in Bangladesh have been exhibiting a high risk of COVID-19 transmission. The detected space-time progression of COVID-19 infection suggests that Bangladesh has experienced a community-level transmission at the early phase (i.e., March, 2020), primarily introduced by Bangladeshi citizens returning from coronavirus epicenters in Europe and the Middle East. Potential linkages exist between the violation of NPIs and the emergence of new higher-risk clusters over the post-incubation periods around Bangladesh. Novel insights into the COVID-19 transmission dynamics derived in this study on Bangladesh provide important policy guidelines for early preparations and pragmatic NPI measures to effectively deal with infectious diseases in resource-scarce countries worldwide.
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影响因子：
4.9
作者：
Desjardins, M. R.;Hohl, A.;Delmelle, E. M.
通讯作者：
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影响因子：
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作者：
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DOI：
10.1073/pnas.2004978117
发表时间：
2020-05-12
影响因子：
11.1
作者：
Gatto, Marino;Bertuzzo, Enrico;Rinaldo, Andrea
通讯作者：
Rinaldo, Andrea
DOI：
10.1111/1467-985x.00186
发表时间：
2001-01-01
影响因子：
2
作者：
Kulldorff, M
通讯作者：
Kulldorff, M