Individual variation in susceptibility or exposure to SARS-CoV-2 lowers the herd immunity threshold.
Individual variation in susceptibility or exposure to SARS-CoV-2 lowers the herd immunity threshold.
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DOI：
10.1016/j.jtbi.2022.111063
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发表时间：
2022-05-07
影响因子：
2
通讯作者：
Aguas R
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Gomes MGM;Ferreira MU;Corder RM;King JG;Souto-Maior C;Penha-Gonçalves C;Gonçalves G;Chikina M;Pegden W;Aguas R
易感性和暴露的个体差异受到自然感染的选择，加速免疫力的获得，降低群体免疫阈值和流行病最终规模。这是一个更广泛的人口现象，称为“脆弱的变化”的表现。尽管有理论上的理解，但公共卫生政策继续以数学模型为指导，这些模型忽略了相当大的差异，因此夸大了预计的疾病负担，高估了干预措施的影响。在此，我们重点关注2021年11月之前英格兰和苏格兰的冠状病毒病（COVID-19）大流行的轨迹。我们拟合模型，以一系列的每日死亡和推断相关的流行病学参数，包括变异系数和非药物干预的影响，我们发现在协议的基础上接触调查的独立经验估计。我们的估计是稳健的，无论分析的数据系列包括一个或两个大流行波，并使预测与随后的动态兼容。我们的结论是，疫苗接种计划可能有助于获得群体免疫力的人群与高水平的预先存在的自然获得性免疫力，而至关重要的是保护脆弱的个人从严重的后果，因为病毒成为地方性。
Individual variation in susceptibility and exposure is subject to selection by natural infection, accelerating the acquisition of immunity, and reducing herd immunity thresholds and epidemic final sizes. This is a manifestation of a wider population phenomenon known as “frailty variation”. Despite theoretical understanding, public health policies continue to be guided by mathematical models that leave out considerable variation and as a result inflate projected disease burdens and overestimate the impact of interventions. Here we focus on trajectories of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic in England and Scotland until November 2021. We fit models to series of daily deaths and infer relevant epidemiological parameters, including coefficients of variation and effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions which we find in agreement with independent empirical estimates based on contact surveys. Our estimates are robust to whether the analysed data series encompass one or two pandemic waves and enable projections compatible with subsequent dynamics. We conclude that vaccination programmes may have contributed modestly to the acquisition of herd immunity in populations with high levels of pre-existing naturally acquired immunity, while being crucial to protect vulnerable individuals from severe outcomes as the virus becomes endemic.
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SARS-COV-2血统的估计可传播和影响B.1.1.7在英国。
DOI：
10.1126/science.abg3055
发表时间：
2021-04-09
期刊：
Science (New York, N.Y.)
影响因子：
--
作者：
Davies NG;Abbott S;Barnard RC;Jarvis CI;Kucharski AJ;Munday JD;Pearson CAB;Russell TW;Tully DC;Washburne AD;Wenseleers T;Gimma A;Waites W;Wong KLM;van Zandvoort K;Silverman JD;CMMID COVID-19 Working Group;COVID-19 Genomics UK (COG-UK) Consortium;Diaz-Ordaz K;Keogh R;Eggo RM;Funk S;Jit M;Atkins KE;Edmunds WJ
通讯作者：
Edmunds WJ
影响因子：
4.3
作者：
Chen S;Flegg JA;White LJ;Aguas R
通讯作者：
Aguas R
影响因子：
5
作者：
Dodd PJ;Looker C;Plumb ID;Bond V;Schaap A;Shanaube K;Muyoyeta M;Vynnycky E;Godfrey-Faussett P;Corbett EL;Beyers N;Ayles H;White RG
通讯作者：
White RG
影响因子：
1.9
作者：
GART, JJ
通讯作者：
GART, JJ
DOI：
10.1126/science.abn8347
发表时间：
2022-03-25
期刊：
Science (New York, N.Y.)
影响因子：
--
作者：
Elliott P;Bodinier B;Eales O;Wang H;Haw D;Elliott J;Whitaker M;Jonnerby J;Tang D;Walters CE;Atchison C;Diggle PJ;Page AJ;Trotter AJ;Ashby D;Barclay W;Taylor G;Ward H;Darzi A;Cooke GS;Chadeau-Hyam M;Donnelly CA
通讯作者：
Donnelly CA