Productivity benefits of warming at regional scale could be offset by detrimental impacts on site level hydrology.
Productivity benefits of warming at regional scale could be offset by detrimental impacts on site level hydrology.
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区域范围内变暖带来的生产力效益可能会被对场地水文的不利影响所抵消
DOI：
10.1038/s41598-017-15136-8
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发表时间：
2017-11-09
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Lei G
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Zeng Q;Zhang Y;Wen L;Li Z;Duo H;Lei G
气候变化影响着野生动物的分布和生存。大规模的研究表明，气候变化改变了物种的地理分布和物候。这些研究结果是有影响力的高层次的战略，但不足以指导现场具体管理。本研究采用广义加性混合模型（GAMM）对青海省斑头雁重点繁殖地的环境因子进行了研究。结果表明：（1）气候变量和入湖河流流量呈显著增加趋势;（2）尽管气候变暖和变湿导致区域性正趋势，但各站点的植被指数却显著下降;（3）站点尺度的植被指数与青海湖水位呈负相关;（4）斑头雁的丰度在所有站点均显著下降。虽然丰富的繁殖地的NDVI呈正相关，GAMM揭示了相反的关系在觅食区。我们的研究结果表明，气候变化对种群动态的影响是多方面的，在全球/区域尺度上的影响可能会复杂的站点水平的因素。
Climate change affects the distribution and persistence of wildlife. Broad scale studies have demonstrated that climate change shifts the geographic ranges and phenology of species. These findings are influential for making high level strategies but not practical enough to guide site specific management. In this study, we explored the environment factors affecting the population of Bar-headed Goose in the key breeding site of Qinghai using generalized additive mixed model (GAMM). Our results showed that 1) there were significant increasing trends in climate variables and river flows to the Qinghai Lake; 2) NDVI in the sites decreased significantly despite the regional positive trend induced by the warmer and wetter climate; 3) NDVI at site scale was negatively correlated to lake water level; and 4) the abundance of Bar-headed Goose decreased significantly at all sites. While the abundance was positively related to NDVI at breeding sites, the GAMM revealed an opposite relationship at foraging areas. Our findings demonstrated the multi-facet effects of climate change on population dynamics; and the effect at global/regional scale could be complicated by site level factors.
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