Potential effects of warmer worms and vectors on onchocerciasis transmission in West Africa.
Potential effects of warmer worms and vectors on onchocerciasis transmission in West Africa.
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DOI：
10.1098/rstb.2013.0559
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发表时间：
2015-04-05
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Wilson MD
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Cheke RA;Basáñez MG;Perry M;White MT;Garms R;Obuobie E;Lamberton PH;Young S;Osei-Atweneboana MY;Intsiful J;Shen M;Boakye DA;Wilson MD
盘尾丝虫病病媒虫的卵、幼虫、蛹和盘尾丝虫病媒虫幼虫在成虫雌性体内的发育时间随着温度的升高而减少。在25℃及以上温度下，寄生虫可在不到7天的时间内到达感染阶段，而病媒仅需两个淋养循环即可传播。在将媒介发展的指数函数纳入新的黑蝇种群模型后，预测利比里亚和加纳的苍蝇数量将在气温为29°C和34°C时达到峰值，分别比目前的月平均水平高出约3°C和7°C；森林蝇（利比里亚）的产卵率将在29°C达到峰值，草原蝇（加纳）的产卵率将在30°C达到峰值。温度的小幅升高（小于2°C）可能导致不同媒介生物类群的地理分布发生变化。当将新模型与人类和病媒盘尾丝虫病种群动态的现有框架联系起来时，预计随着温度至少达到33°C，传播率和蠕虫负荷将增加。相比之下，对利比里亚森林蝇类和加纳草原蝇类的野外数据进行的分析，与区域气候变化预测有关，在简单回归的基础上表明，从现在到2040年之前，蝇类数量预计将减少13-41%。需要进一步的研究来调和这些相互矛盾的结论。
Development times of eggs, larvae and pupae of vectors of onchocerciasis (Simulium spp.) and of Onchocerca volvulus larvae within the adult females of the vectors decrease with increasing temperature. At and above 25°C, the parasite could reach its infective stage in less than 7 days when vectors could transmit after only two gonotrophic cycles. After incorporating exponential functions for vector development into a novel blackfly population model, it was predicted that fly numbers in Liberia and Ghana would peak at air temperatures of 29°C and 34°C, about 3°C and 7°C above current monthly averages, respectively; parous rates of forest flies (Liberia) would peak at 29°C and of savannah flies (Ghana) at 30°C. Small temperature increases (less than 2°C) might lead to changes in geographical distributions of different vector taxa. When the new model was linked to an existing framework for the population dynamics of onchocerciasis in humans and vectors, transmission rates and worm loads were projected to increase with temperature to at least 33°C. By contrast, analyses of field data on forest flies in Liberia and savannah flies in Ghana, in relation to regional climate change predictions, suggested, on the basis of simple regressions, that 13–41% decreases in fly numbers would be expected between the present and before 2040. Further research is needed to reconcile these conflicting conclusions.
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DOI：
10.1080/00034983.1988.11812296
发表时间：
1988-12-01
影响因子：
--
作者：
BASANEZ, MG;YARZABAL, L;TADA, I
通讯作者：
TADA, I
影响因子：
4.8
作者：
Arnell, NW
通讯作者：
Arnell, NW
影响因子：
2.7
作者：
Cheke, Robert A.;Garms, Rolf
通讯作者：
Garms, Rolf
影响因子：
5.7
作者：
BIRLEY, MH;WALSH, JF;DAVIES, JB
通讯作者：
DAVIES, JB
影响因子：
2.2
作者：
EDWARDS, AJ;TRENHOLME, AAG
通讯作者：
TRENHOLME, AAG