Effect of the one-child policy on influenza transmission in China: a stochastic transmission model.
Effect of the one-child policy on influenza transmission in China: a stochastic transmission model.
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.pone.0084961
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发表时间：
2014
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Porco TC
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Liu F;Enanoria WT;Ray KJ;Coffee MP;Gordon A;Aragón TJ;Yu G;Cowling BJ;Porco TC
中国于1979年推出的一对夫妇只生一个孩子的政策，给世界近四分之一的人口带来了深刻的人口结构变化。几十年后，其后果包括生育率下降、人口老龄化、家庭规模缩小、家庭结构变化以及性别比例失衡。传染病的流行病学可能受到这些变化的影响，因为传染病的传播动态取决于人口的人口特征。特别令人感兴趣的是流感，因为中国和东南亚位于全球流感传播网络的中心。此外，家庭结构的变化可能会影响流感的传播。有没有可能中国发生的明显的人口结构变化影响了流感的传播？为了解决这个问题，我们开发了一个连续时间的、随机的、基于个体的流感传播模拟模型。利用这个模型，我们模拟了30年的流感传播，并比较了独生子女政策控制下和没有独生子女政策控制下的人群的流感传播率。我们发现，与没有人口结构变化的人口相比，独生子女政策下的年平均发病率降低了6.08%(SD 2.21%)。在有和没有独生子女政策的人群中，二次发病率没有明显差异，−为0.15%(SD 1.85%)。我们还预测了在2015年将实行一对夫妇二孩政策的假设下，实行二孩政策的人群在十年内的流感传播情况，发现与实行独生子女政策的人口相比，平均年发病率差异不大。这项研究发现，在实行独生子女政策的人口中，年平均发病率略有下降，这可能是由于家庭规模和儿童在人口中的比例下降所致。
China's one-child-per-couple policy, introduced in 1979, led to profound demographic changes for nearly a quarter of the world's population. Several decades later, the consequences include decreased fertility rates, population aging, decreased household sizes, changes in family structure, and imbalanced sex ratios. The epidemiology of communicable diseases may have been affected by these changes since the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases depend on demographic characteristics of the population. Of particular interest is influenza because China and Southeast Asia lie at the center of a global transmission network of influenza. Moreover, changes in household structure may affect influenza transmission. Is it possible that the pronounced demographic changes that have occurred in China have affected influenza transmission? To address this question, we developed a continuous-time, stochastic, individual-based simulation model for influenza transmission. With this model, we simulated 30 years of influenza transmission and compared influenza transmission rates in populations with and without the one-child policy control. We found that the average annual attack rate is reduced by 6.08% (SD 2.21%) in the presence of the one-child policy compared to a population in which no demographic changes occurred. There was no discernible difference in the secondary attack rate, −0.15% (SD 1.85%), between the populations with and without a one-child policy. We also forecasted influenza transmission over a ten-year time period in a population with a two-child policy under a hypothesis that a two-child-per-couple policy will be carried out in 2015, and found a negligible difference in the average annual attack rate compared to the population with the one-child policy. This study found that the average annual attack rate is slightly lowered in a population with a one-child policy, which may have resulted from a decrease in household size and the proportion of children in the population.
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DOI：
10.1056/nejmoa0905498
发表时间：
2009-12-31
期刊：
The New England journal of medicine
影响因子：
--
作者：
Cauchemez S;Donnelly CA;Reed C;Ghani AC;Fraser C;Kent CK;Finelli L;Ferguson NM
通讯作者：
Ferguson NM
影响因子：
3.7
作者：
Bansal, Shweta;Pourbohloul, Babak;Meyers, Lauren Ancel
通讯作者：
Meyers, Lauren Ancel
影响因子：
11.8
作者：
Donnelly, Christl A.;Finelli, Lyn;Ferguson, Neil M.
通讯作者：
Ferguson, Neil M.
影响因子：
2
作者：
Cauchemez, S;Carrat, F;Boëlle, PY
通讯作者：
Boëlle, PY
影响因子：
105.7
作者：
Ding, Qu Jian;Hesketh, Therese
通讯作者：
Hesketh, Therese