Disease burden of diabetes, diabetic retinopathy and their future projections in the UK: cross-sectional analyses of a primary care database.
Disease burden of diabetes, diabetic retinopathy and their future projections in the UK: cross-sectional analyses of a primary care database.
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DOI：
10.1136/bmjopen-2021-050058
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发表时间：
2021-07-12
期刊：
影响因子：
2.9
通讯作者：
Nirantharakumar K
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Haider S;Thayakaran R;Subramanian A;Toulis KA;Moore D;Price MJ;Nirantharakumar K
估计IQVIA医学研究数据（IMRD）中糖尿病（DM）和糖尿病视网膜病变（DR）的当前疾病负担、趋势和未来预测。我们对12岁及以上患者进行了一项横断面研究，以确定2017年1月IMRD数据库（初级保健数据库）中DM和DR的患病率，共涉及180824例DM患者。我们还进行了一系列的横断面研究，调查患病率的趋势，然后应用双指数平滑模型来预测未来的负担DM和DR在英国。2017年的粗DM患病率为5.2%。在我们的IMRD横断面研究中，2017年DR、威胁视力的视网膜病变（STR）和糖尿病黄斑病变的患病率分别为33.78%、12.28%和7.86%。糖尿病，DR和STR的患病率有上升趋势，最显着和加速STR在1型糖尿病，但在2型糖尿病放缓，并在DR的总体患病率。我们的研究结果表明，差异上升趋势的糖尿病和DR的患病率。预防策略，以及治疗服务规划，可以根据这些预测的患病率估计。优化护理路径所需的改进以及满足需求和能力挑战的准备工作也可以基于此信息。这项研究的局限性可以通过未来将DR筛查和医院眼科服务数据联系起来的合作研究来克服。
To estimate the current disease burden, trends and future projections for diabetes mellitus (DM) and diabetic retinopathy (DR) in the IQVIA Medical Research Data (IMRD). We performed a cross-sectional study of patients aged 12 and above to determine the prevalence of DM and DR from the IMRD database (primary care database) in January 2017, involving a total population of 1 80 824 patients with DM. We also carried out a series of cross-sectional studies to investigate prevalence trends, and then applied a double exponential smoothing model to forecast the future burden of DM and DR in the UK. The crude DM prevalence in 2017 was 5.2%. The DR, sight-threatening retinopathy (STR) and diabetic maculopathy prevalence figures in 2017 were 33.78%, 12.28% and 7.86%, respectively, in our IMRD cross-sectional study. There were upward trends in the prevalence of DM, DR and STR, most marked and accelerating in STR in type 1 DM but slowing in type 2 DM, and in the overall prevalence of DR. Our results suggest differential rising trends in the prevalence of DM and DR. Preventive strategies, as well as treatment services planning, can be based on these projected prevalence estimates. Improvements that are necessary for the optimisation of care pathways, and preparations to meet demand and capacity challenges, can also be based on this information. The limitations of the study can be overcome by a future collaborative study linking DR screening and hospital eye services data.
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