Projected future distributions of vectors of Trypanosoma cruzi in North America under climate change scenarios.
Projected future distributions of vectors of Trypanosoma cruzi in North America under climate change scenarios.
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.pntd.0002818
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发表时间：
2014-05
影响因子：
3.8
通讯作者：
Sarkar S
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Garza M;Feria Arroyo TP;Casillas EA;Sanchez-Cordero V;Rivaldi CL;Sarkar S
查加斯病每年造成约4.5万人死亡，影响拉丁美洲和美国南部的1000万人。引起这种疾病的寄生虫，克氏锥虫，可以通过Reduviidae，Triatominae亚科的昆虫传播。任何试图评估南美锥虫病风险的研究都必须侧重于这些媒介的生态学和传播学。由于气候变化，病媒物种的预期分布转移可能会改变南美锥虫病风险的空间格局，大概是通过北美高风险地区向北扩展。预测了2050年北美锥口线虫（Triatomagerstaeckeri）和美洲锥口线虫（Triatomagerstaeckeri）在北美的分布。在美国南部，两种最常见的锥蝽物种和克氏锥虫的重要媒介。我们的目的是分析气候变化如何可能影响南美锥虫病在北美的未来转移，使用最大熵算法来预测基于矢量发生点和预测环境变量的适宜栖息地的变化。分析了基于三种不同的大气环流模式（CCCMA，CSIRO和HADCM 3）和两种IPCC情景（A2和B2）的预测。为每种情况开发了20个模型，并通过交叉验证进行了评估。最终的模型平均值来自所有20个模型。所有模型的AUC >0.90，这表明模型是稳健的。我们的研究结果预测了潜在的北方转移的分布T。gerstaeckeri和T.由于气候变化，血杉从目前的范围。这项研究的结果为监测在气候变化情况下南美锥虫病潜在风险北移提供了基线信息。查加斯病每年造成数千人死亡。锥蝽属昆虫（锥蝽科，锥蝽亚科）可能是引起该疾病的寄生虫（克氏锥虫）的潜在媒介。通常没有症状，直到心脏和消化系统功能障碍（可能包括心力衰竭）后10至30年的感染。气候变化可以改变锥蝽昆虫的分布，有利于疾病向非原产地区传播。我们使用了德克萨斯州南部和墨西哥北部最常见的锥虫物种和克氏锥虫最重要的媒介的分布信息（T。gerstaeckeri和T. sanguisuga）和解释性气候变量，以预测2050年昆虫的潜在分布。我们使用了两种不同的气候变化情景和三种不同的大气环流模式。我们的研究结果表明，锥蝽物种研究可能会转移其分布北移的未来。因此，有必要监测目前不是南美锥虫病流行地区，但今后可能因气候变化而受到影响的地区。
Chagas disease kills approximately 45 thousand people annually and affects 10 million people in Latin America and the southern United States. The parasite that causes the disease, Trypanosoma cruzi, can be transmitted by insects of the family Reduviidae, subfamily Triatominae. Any study that attempts to evaluate risk for Chagas disease must focus on the ecology and biogeography of these vectors. Expected distributional shifts of vector species due to climate change are likely to alter spatial patterns of risk of Chagas disease, presumably through northward expansion of high risk areas in North America. We forecast the future (2050) distributions in North America of Triatoma gerstaeckeri and T. sanguisuga, two of the most common triatomine species and important vectors of Trypanosoma cruzi in the southern United States. Our aim was to analyze how climate change might affect the future shift of Chagas disease in North America using a maximum entropy algorithm to predict changes in suitable habitat based on vector occurrence points and predictive environmental variables. Projections based on three different general circulation models (CCCMA, CSIRO, and HADCM3) and two IPCC scenarios (A2 and B2) were analyzed. Twenty models were developed for each case and evaluated via cross-validation. The final model averages result from all twenty of these models. All models had AUC >0.90, which indicates that the models are robust. Our results predict a potential northern shift in the distribution of T. gerstaeckeri and a northern and southern distributional shift of T. sanguisuga from its current range due to climate change. The results of this study provide baseline information for monitoring the northward shift of potential risk from Chagas disease in the face of climate change. Chagas disease kills thousands of people annually. Triatomine insects (family Reduviidae, sub-family Triatominae), can be potential vectors of the parasite (Trypanosoma cruzi) that causes the disease. There are often no symptoms until cardiac and digestive system dysfunction (possibly including heart failure) after 10 to 30 years of infection. Climate change can shift the distribution of triatomine insects, favoring the spread of the disease to non-original areas. We used distributional information on the most commonly found triatomine species and the most important vectors of Trypanosoma cruzi in South Texas and North Mexico (T. gerstaeckeri and T. sanguisuga), and explanatory climatic variables to forecast the potential distribution of the insects in the year 2050. We used two different scenarios of climate change and three different general circulation models. Our results showed that the triatomine species studied will likely shift their distribution northwards in the future. There is thus a need to monitor areas that are not currently endemic for Chagas disease but may potentially be affected in the future due to climate change.
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