Neighborhood effects on heat deaths: social and environmental predictors of vulnerability in Maricopa County, Arizona.
Neighborhood effects on heat deaths: social and environmental predictors of vulnerability in Maricopa County, Arizona.
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DOI：
10.1289/ehp.1104625
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发表时间：
2013-02
影响因子：
10.4
通讯作者：
Petitti DB
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Harlan SL;Declet-Barreto JH;Stefanov WL;Petitti DB
大多数与高温有关的死亡发生在城市，全球气候变化和城市化的未来趋势可能会放大这一趋势。了解邻里如何影响热死亡率填补了一个重要的差距之间的研究个人对热的敏感性和广泛的比较研究的温度与死亡率的关系在城市。目的：我们估计的人口特征和建筑和自然环境对死亡的影响，由于热暴露在亚利桑那州的Marvila县（2000-2008年）。研究方法：我们使用2000年美国人口普查数据和遥感植被和地表温度来构建邻里脆弱性指标和地理信息系统，以绘制2,081个人口普查区块组中死于热暴露的人的脆弱性和居住地址。二元逻辑回归和空间分析用于将死亡与社区联系起来。结果如下：邻里得分的三个因素-社会经济脆弱性，老年人/隔离，和无植被的地区-变化很大，在整个研究领域。预测一个或多个人口普查区块组内因热暴露而死亡的几率的首选模型（基于拟合和简约性）包括前两个因素和住宅区的表面温度，保持人口规模不变。空间分析确定了具有最高热脆弱性分数的街区群。大部分死亡发生在居住在最大城市核心区和沿着工业走廊的人当中，包括无家可归者。结论：基于地点的脆弱性指标补充了对人的热风险因素的分析。在Marvila县，地表温度可以用来确定最容易受到热影响的社区，但需要更多地关注气候适应的社会生态复杂性。
Background: Most heat-related deaths occur in cities, and future trends in global climate change and urbanization may amplify this trend. Understanding how neighborhoods affect heat mortality fills an important gap between studies of individual susceptibility to heat and broadly comparative studies of temperature–mortality relationships in cities. Objectives: We estimated neighborhood effects of population characteristics and built and natural environments on deaths due to heat exposure in Maricopa County, Arizona (2000–2008). Methods: We used 2000 U.S. Census data and remotely sensed vegetation and land surface temperature to construct indicators of neighborhood vulnerability and a geographic information system to map vulnerability and residential addresses of persons who died from heat exposure in 2,081 census block groups. Binary logistic regression and spatial analysis were used to associate deaths with neighborhoods. Results: Neighborhood scores on three factors—socioeconomic vulnerability, elderly/isolation, and unvegetated area—varied widely throughout the study area. The preferred model (based on fit and parsimony) for predicting the odds of one or more deaths from heat exposure within a census block group included the first two factors and surface temperature in residential neighborhoods, holding population size constant. Spatial analysis identified clusters of neighborhoods with the highest heat vulnerability scores. A large proportion of deaths occurred among people, including homeless persons, who lived in the inner cores of the largest cities and along an industrial corridor. Conclusions: Place-based indicators of vulnerability complement analyses of person-level heat risk factors. Surface temperature might be used in Maricopa County to identify the most heat-vulnerable neighborhoods, but more attention to the socioecological complexities of climate adaptation is needed.
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影响因子：
5
作者：
Jenerette, G. Darrel;Harlan, Sharon L.;Martin, Chris A.
通讯作者：
Martin, Chris A.
DOI：
10.1073/pnas.0710375105
发表时间：
2008-02-19
影响因子：
11.1
作者：
Cutter, Susan L.;Finch, Christina
通讯作者：
Finch, Christina
影响因子：
3.6
作者：
ANSELIN, L
通讯作者：
ANSELIN, L
影响因子：
10.4
作者：
Anderson GB;Bell ML
通讯作者：
Bell ML
影响因子：
5.4
作者：
Lochner, KA;Kawachi, I;Buka, SL
通讯作者：
Buka, SL