Heat waves in the United States: mortality risk during heat waves and effect modification by heat wave characteristics in 43 U.S. communities.
Heat waves in the United States: mortality risk during heat waves and effect modification by heat wave characteristics in 43 U.S. communities.
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DOI：
10.1289/ehp.1002313
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发表时间：
2011-02
影响因子：
10.4
通讯作者：
Bell ML
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Anderson GB;Bell ML
近期热浪对健康造成的破坏性影响，以及预计气候变化导致的热浪频率、持续时间和严重程度的增加，突显了了解热浪对健康后果的重要性。我们分析了美国43个城市（1987-2005）热浪的死亡风险，并调查了热浪的强度、持续时间或季节时间与死亡风险的关系。热浪定义为5月1日至9月30日社区温度≥95百分位数的≥2天。热浪的特点是强度、持续时间和季节。在每个社区中，我们估计了每次热浪期间与非热浪天相比的死亡风险，控制了潜在的混杂因素。我们结合使用贝叶斯分层模型的个别热浪影响估计，得出社区、区域和国家层面的总体影响。我们估计了热浪特征（强度、持续时间、季节时间）如何改变热浪死亡率效应。在全国范围内，与非热浪天相比，热浪期间死亡率增加了3.74%[95%后验区间（PI）， 2.29-5.22%]。热浪强度每增加1华氏度，热浪死亡风险增加2.49%，热浪持续时间每增加1天，热浪死亡风险增加0.38%。与非热浪天气相比，夏季第一次热浪期间死亡率增加5.04% (95% PI, 3.06-7.06%)，而在随后的热浪期间死亡率增加2.65% （95% PI, 1.14-4.18%）。热浪对死亡率的影响和热浪特征对死亡率的影响在东北部和中西部地区比南部地区更为明显。我们发现，更强烈或更长时间的热浪，或者发生在夏天早些时候的热浪，死亡风险更高。这些发现对决策者和研究人员估计气候变化对健康的影响具有启示意义。
Devastating health effects from recent heat waves, and projected increases in frequency, duration, and severity of heat waves from climate change, highlight the importance of understanding health consequences of heat waves. We analyzed mortality risk for heat waves in 43 U.S. cities (1987–2005) and investigated how effects relate to heat waves’ intensity, duration, or timing in season. Heat waves were defined as ≥ 2 days with temperature ≥ 95th percentile for the community for 1 May through 30 September. Heat waves were characterized by their intensity, duration, and timing in season. Within each community, we estimated mortality risk during each heat wave compared with non-heat wave days, controlling for potential confounders. We combined individual heat wave effect estimates using Bayesian hierarchical modeling to generate overall effects at the community, regional, and national levels. We estimated how heat wave mortality effects were modified by heat wave characteristics (intensity, duration, timing in season). Nationally, mortality increased 3.74% [95% posterior interval (PI), 2.29–5.22%] during heat waves compared with non-heat wave days. Heat wave mortality risk increased 2.49% for every 1°F increase in heat wave intensity and 0.38% for every 1-day increase in heat wave duration. Mortality increased 5.04% (95% PI, 3.06–7.06%) during the first heat wave of the summer versus 2.65% (95% PI, 1.14–4.18%) during later heat waves, compared with non-heat wave days. Heat wave mortality impacts and effect modification by heat wave characteristics were more pronounced in the Northeast and Midwest compared with the South. We found higher mortality risk from heat waves that were more intense or longer, or those occurring earlier in summer. These findings have implications for decision makers and researchers estimating health effects from climate change.
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影响因子：
120.7
作者：
Dominici, F;Peng, RD;Samet, JM
通讯作者：
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通讯作者：
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