A Generational Shift: Race and the Declining Lifetime Risk of Imprisonment.
A Generational Shift: Race and the Declining Lifetime Risk of Imprisonment.
复制标题
DOI：
10.1215/00703370-10863378
复制
发表时间：
2023-08-01
期刊：
影响因子：
3.5
通讯作者：
Light, Michael T.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Robey, Jason P.;Massoglia, Michael;Light, Michael T.
大规模监禁从根本上改变了一代美国男性的生活轨迹，但近年来监禁人数的持续下降引发了人们对监禁如何影响当代这代人的质疑。这项研究为更全面地了解美国当代监禁状况做出了三个主要贡献。首先，我们评估脱焦的范围。1999年至2019年，黑人男性监禁率下降了44%，50个州的黑人男性监禁率明显下降。其次，我们的生命表分析显示，监禁的终身风险显著下降。从1999年到2019年，黑人男性终身监禁的风险下降了近一半。我们估计，2001年出生的黑人中只有不到五分之一会入狱，而1981年出生的黑人中有三分之一会入狱。第三，脱囚改变了年轻人的机构经历。在2009年，年轻的黑人男性更有可能经历监禁而不是大学毕业。十年后，这一趋势发生了逆转，黑人男性更有可能从大学毕业，而不是进监狱。我们的研究结果表明，与经历大规模监禁高峰的一代人相比，监狱在最近一代人的制度格局中发挥的作用较小。
Mass incarceration fundamentally altered the life course for a generation of American men, but sustained declines in imprisonment in recent years raise questions about how incarceration is shaping current generations. This study makes three primary contributions to a fuller understanding of the contemporary landscape of incarceration in the United States. First, we assess the scope of decarceration. Between 1999 and 2019, the Black male incarceration rate dropped by 44%, and notable declines in Black male imprisonment were evident in all 50 states. Second, our life table analysis demonstrates marked declines in the lifetime risks of incarceration. For Black men, the lifetime risk of incarceration declined by nearly half from 1999 to 2019. We estimate that less than 1 in 5 Black men born in 2001 will be imprisoned, compared with 1 in 3 for the 1981 birth cohort. Third, decarceration has shifted the institutional experiences of young adulthood. In 2009, young Black men were much more likely to experience imprisonment than college graduation. Ten years later, this trend had reversed, with Black men more likely to graduate college than go to prison. Our results suggest that prison has played a smaller role in the institutional landscape for the most recent generation compared to the generation exposed to the peak of mass incarceration.
登录
查看更多内容
影响因子：
13.6
作者：
Bushway S;Cabreros I;Paige JW;Schwam D;Wenger JB
通讯作者：
Wenger JB
影响因子：
3.4
作者：
Chung, Pil H.;Hepburn, Peter
通讯作者：
Hepburn, Peter
影响因子：
3.5
作者：
Barreca A;Deschenes O;Guldi M
通讯作者：
Guldi M
影响因子：
3.5
作者：
Tilstra, Andrea M.;Gutin, Iliya;Dollar, Nathan T.;Rogers, Richard G.;Hummer, Robert A.
通讯作者：
Hummer, Robert A.
影响因子：
5.8
作者：
Baumer, Eric P.;Cundiff, Kelsey;Luo, Liying
通讯作者：
Luo, Liying