Monkeypox virus shows potential to infect a diverse range of native animal species across Europe, indicating high risk of becoming endemic in the region
Monkeypox virus shows potential to infect a diverse range of native animal species across Europe, indicating high risk of becoming endemic in the region
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猴痘病毒有可能感染欧洲各地的多种本土动物物种，表明该地区流行的风险很高
DOI：
10.1101/2022.08.13.503846
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发表时间：
2022
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Blagrove M
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Blagrove M
背景猴痘是一种人畜共患病毒，它持续存在于动物蓄水池中，并周期性地溢出到人类体内，导致疫情爆发。在当前的2022年疫情期间，猴痘病毒通过人与人之间的传播持续了下来，横跨所有主要大洲，持续时间比以往任何记录都要长。这种史无前例的传播使病毒有可能“溢出”到当地易受感染的动物种群中。这种动物之间的持续传播增加了猴痘病毒在新地区成为地方性流行病的可能性。然而，猴痘潜在动物宿主和宿主的全部和特定范围仍然未知，特别是在新的风险非流行地区。方法在这里，利用包含不同类别平衡技术和结合实例权重的分类器集合，我们识别哪些动物物种可能对猴痘病毒易感。随后，我们生成空间分布图，以高分辨率突出高风险地理区域。发现我们表明，潜在敏感物种的数量目前被低估了2.4至4.3倍，而且高密度的野生敏感物种是原产于欧洲的。我们提供了这些物种的清单，并强调了溢出的高风险宿主和潜在的长期宿主，这可能使猴痘病毒成为地方性的。我们重点介绍欧洲红狐和褐鼠，因为它们与潜在的受污染的城市垃圾和污水建立了相互作用，这为潜在的溢出提供了一种机制。我们预计，我们的结果将使我们能够有针对性地积极监测潜在的溢出事件，将病毒在这些地区流行的风险降至最低。我们的结果还表明，家养的猫和狗(后者现在得到证实)可能会感染猴痘病毒，因此支持许多卫生组织对受感染的人类避免与宠物发生身体接触的建议。
BackgroundMonkeypox is a zoonotic virus which persists in animal reservoirs and periodically spills over into humans, causing outbreaks. During the current 2022 outbreak, monkeypox virus has persisted via human-human transmission, across all major continents and for longer than any previous record. This unprecedented spread creates the potential for the virus to ‘spillback’ into local susceptible animal populations. Persistent transmission amongst such animals raises the prospect of monkeypox virus becoming enzootic in new regions. However, the full and specific range of potential animal hosts and reservoirs of monkeypox remains unknown, especially in newly at-risk non-endemic areas.MethodsHere, utilising ensembles of classifiers comprising different class balancing techniques and incorporating instance weights, we identify which animal species are potentially susceptible to monkeypox virus. Subsequently, we generate spatial distribution maps to highlight high-risk geographic areas at high resolution.FindingsWe show that the number of potentially susceptible species is currently underestimated by 2.4 to 4.3-fold, and that a high density of wild susceptible species are native to Europe. We provide lists of these species, and highlight high-risk hosts for spillback and potential long-term reservoirs, which may enable monkeypox virus to become endemic.InterpretationWe highlight the European red fox and brown rat, as they have established interactions with potentially contaminated urban waste and sewage, which provides a mechanism for potential spillback. We anticipate that our results will enable targeted active surveillance of potential spillback event, to minimise risk of the virus becoming endemic in these regions. Our results also indicate the potential of domesticated cats and dogs (latter now confirmed) being susceptible to monkeypox virus, and hence support many health organisations’ advice for infected humans to avoid physical interaction with pets.
影响因子：
2.6
作者：
Gnanadesikan GE;Pearse WD;Shaw AK
通讯作者：
Shaw AK
DOI：
10.4269/ajtmh.2007.76.757
发表时间：
2007-04-01
影响因子：
3.3
作者：
Hutson, Christina L.;Lee, Kemba N.;Regnery, Russell L.
通讯作者：
Regnery, Russell L.
影响因子：
2.4
作者：
Rhyan, J. C.;Spraker, T. R.
通讯作者：
Spraker, T. R.