Imported dengue cases, weather variation and autochthonous dengue incidence in Cairns, Australia.
Imported dengue cases, weather variation and autochthonous dengue incidence in Cairns, Australia.
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.pone.0081887
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发表时间：
2013
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Hu W
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Huang X;Williams G;Clements AC;Hu W
在澳大利亚凯恩斯，登革热暴发通常由输入性登革热病例引起。很少有研究将输入的DF病例纳入天气变率与本地DF发病率之间关系的估计中。本研究的目的是在考虑输入性登革热病例后，研究天气变化对本地登革热感染的影响，并探讨开发经验预报系统的可能性。澳大利亚气象局、昆士兰卫生局和澳大利亚统计局提供了有关天气变量、已通报的登革热病例（包括在本地和海外获得的病例）和凯恩斯人口规模的数据。采用时间序列负二项障碍模型评估输入性登革热病例和天气变率对本地登革热发病率的影响。我们的结果显示，每月本地DF发病率与每月输入DF病例显著相关(相对风险（RR）：1.52；95%置信区间（CI）： 1.01-2.28)、月最低温度（oC） （RR: 2.28; 95% CI: 1.77-2.93）、月相对湿度（%）（RR: 1.21; 95% CI: 1.06-1.37）、月降雨量（mm） （RR: 0.50; 95% CI: 0.31-0.81）和月相对湿度（%）的标准偏差（RR: 1.27; 95% CI: 1.08-1.50）。在零障碍分量中，每月本地DF病例的发生与每月最低温度显著相关(优势比（OR）： 1.64；95% ci: 1.01-2.67)。本研究表明，凯恩斯的月输入性登革热发病率与当地最低气温和月间相对湿度变化呈显著正相关。此外，凯恩斯的DF暴发仅在有利的季节和天气条件下由输入性DF病例驱动。
Dengue fever (DF) outbreaks often arise from imported DF cases in Cairns, Australia. Few studies have incorporated imported DF cases in the estimation of the relationship between weather variability and incidence of autochthonous DF. The study aimed to examine the impact of weather variability on autochthonous DF infection after accounting for imported DF cases and then to explore the possibility of developing an empirical forecast system. Data on weather variables, notified DF cases (including those acquired locally and overseas), and population size in Cairns were supplied by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Queensland Health, and Australian Bureau of Statistics. A time-series negative-binomial hurdle model was used to assess the effects of imported DF cases and weather variability on autochthonous DF incidence. Our results showed that monthly autochthonous DF incidences were significantly associated with monthly imported DF cases (Relative Risk (RR):1.52; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.01–2.28), monthly minimum temperature (oC) (RR: 2.28; 95% CI: 1.77–2.93), monthly relative humidity (%) (RR: 1.21; 95% CI: 1.06–1.37), monthly rainfall (mm) (RR: 0.50; 95% CI: 0.31–0.81) and monthly standard deviation of daily relative humidity (%) (RR: 1.27; 95% CI: 1.08–1.50). In the zero hurdle component, the occurrence of monthly autochthonous DF cases was significantly associated with monthly minimum temperature (Odds Ratio (OR): 1.64; 95% CI: 1.01–2.67). Our research suggested that incidences of monthly autochthonous DF were strongly positively associated with monthly imported DF cases, local minimum temperature and inter-month relative humidity variability in Cairns. Moreover, DF outbreak in Cairns was driven by imported DF cases only under favourable seasons and weather conditions in the study.
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DOI：
10.1080/09603120801966043
发表时间：
2008-01-01
影响因子：
3.2
作者：
Halide, Halmar;Ridd, Peter
通讯作者：
Ridd, Peter
DOI：
10.4269/ajtmh.2012.11-0451
发表时间：
2013-01-01
影响因子：
3.3
作者：
Bannister-Tyrrell, Melanie;Williams, Craig;Harley, David
通讯作者：
Harley, David
影响因子：
11.4
作者：
KAY, BH;BARKERHUDSON, P;GORMAN, BM
通讯作者：
GORMAN, BM
影响因子：
3.7
作者：
Jalava K;Ollgren J;Eklund M;Siitonen A;Kuusi M
通讯作者：
Kuusi M
气候变异性以及新加坡登革热发生率的强度和大小的增加。
影响因子：
2.6
作者：
Hii, Yien Ling;Rocklov, Joacim;Ng, Nawi;Tang, Choon Siang;Pang, Fung Yin;Sauerborn, Rainer
通讯作者：
Sauerborn, Rainer