Climate variability and increase in intensity and magnitude of dengue incidence in Singapore.
Climate variability and increase in intensity and magnitude of dengue incidence in Singapore.
复制标题
气候变异性以及新加坡登革热发生率的强度和大小的增加。
DOI：
10.3402/gha.v2i0.2036
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发表时间：
2009-11-11
影响因子：
2.6
通讯作者：
Sauerborn, Rainer
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hii, Yien Ling;Rocklov, Joacim;Ng, Nawi;Tang, Choon Siang;Pang, Fung Yin;Sauerborn, Rainer
登革热目前是亚太地区主要的公共卫生负担。本研究旨在建立登革热发病率，平均温度和降水之间的关联，并进一步讨论天气预报如何影响登革热在新加坡在2000-2007年期间的强度和幅度的增加。检索并分析了新加坡2000-2007年的每周登革热发病率数据、日平均气温和降水量以及年中人口数据。我们采用了一个时间序列泊松回归模型，包括时间因素，如时间趋势，天气预报的滞后条款，考虑自相关性，并占人口规模的变化抵消。新加坡的周平均气温和累积降水量与登革热发病率的增加有统计学意义。结果表明，登革热发病率分别在气温升高和降水增加后5-16周和5-20周呈线性增加。滞后17-20周与周平均气温呈负相关，滞后1-4周和滞后17-20周与累积降水量呈负相关。由于新加坡在2004-2007年经历了较高的周平均温度和累积降水量，我们的研究结果表明气候因素对登革热病例强度和规模的增加产生了危险影响。持续的全球气候变化可能会在不久的将来增加登革热感染的负担。
Dengue is currently a major public health burden in Asia Pacific Region. This study aims to establish an association between dengue incidence, mean temperature and precipitation, and further discuss how weather predictors influence the increase in intensity and magnitude of dengue in Singapore during the period 2000–2007. Weekly dengue incidence data, daily mean temperature and precipitation and the midyear population data in Singapore during 2000–2007 were retrieved and analysed. We employed a time series Poisson regression model including time factors such as time trends, lagged terms of weather predictors, considered autocorrelation, and accounted for changes in population size by offsetting. The weekly mean temperature and cumulative precipitation were statistically significant related to the increases of dengue incidence in Singapore. Our findings showed that dengue incidence increased linearly at time lag of 5–16 and 5–20 weeks succeeding elevated temperature and precipitation, respectively. However, negative association occurred at lag week 17–20 with low weekly mean temperature as well as lag week 1–4 and 17–20 with low cumulative precipitation. As Singapore experienced higher weekly mean temperature and cumulative precipitation in the years 2004–2007, our results signified hazardous impacts of climate factors on the increase in intensity and magnitude of dengue cases. The ongoing global climate change might potentially increase the burden of dengue fever infection in near future.
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影响因子：
10.4
作者：
Ebi KL;Lewis ND;Corvalan C
通讯作者：
Corvalan C
影响因子：
3.8
作者：
Johansson, Michael A.;Dominici, Francesca;Glass, Gregory E.
通讯作者：
Glass, Gregory E.
DOI：
10.1007/s11524-007-9170-x
发表时间：
2007-05
影响因子：
6.6
作者：
Campbell-Lendrum, Diarmid;Corvalan, Carlos
通讯作者：
Corvalan, Carlos
影响因子：
4.4
作者：
ANIELLO, C;MORGAN, K;NEWLAND, L
通讯作者：
NEWLAND, L
影响因子：
1.7
作者：
Naumova, Elena N.;MacNeill, Ian B.
通讯作者：
MacNeill, Ian B.