Wheat rust epidemics damage Ethiopian wheat production: A decade of field disease surveillance reveals national-scale trends in past outbreaks.
Wheat rust epidemics damage Ethiopian wheat production: A decade of field disease surveillance reveals national-scale trends in past outbreaks.
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小麦锈病流行病会损害埃塞俄比亚小麦的产量：十年的现场疾病监测揭示了过去爆发的国家规模趋势。
DOI：
10.1371/journal.pone.0245697
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发表时间：
2021
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Gilligan CA
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Meyer M;Bacha N;Tesfaye T;Alemayehu Y;Abera E;Hundie B;Woldeab G;Girma B;Gemechu A;Negash T;Mideksa T;Smith J;Jaleta M;Hodson D;Gilligan CA
小麦锈病是非洲最大的小麦生产国之一埃塞俄比亚小麦生产的主要生物限制因素。真菌疾病造成经济损失，威胁小农的生计。虽然已知埃塞俄比亚发生过小麦锈病流行病，但迄今为止还没有对过去的疫情进行系统的长期分析。我们目前的结果，从一个最全面的监测活动的小麦锈病在非洲。在过去13年中，对13 000多个油田进行了调查。使用空间数据分析和可视化，统计工具和经验建模相结合，我们确定了小麦秆锈病（Sr），条锈病（Yr）和叶锈病（Lr）的分布趋势。结果显示感染水平非常高（Yr的平均发病率：44%; Sr：34%; Lr：18%）。这些经常性的锈病爆发导致了巨大的经济损失，我们估计每年约为1000万美元。在广泛采用的小麦品种Digalu上，在新的锈病小种入侵埃塞俄比亚之后，疾病流行率显著增加，这表明主要基因抗性的明显繁荣和萧条周期。利用空间分析，我们确定了所有三种锈病的疾病风险热点，海拔高度和疾病流行率之间呈线性相关，并发现茎锈病流行率呈明显的南北趋势。时间分析表明，在小麦季节和强烈的年际变化的疾病水平呈S形增加。虽然一个简单的逻辑斯谛曲线在预测茎锈病在某些年份表现令人满意，但它不能解释其他年份的复杂爆发模式，也不能预测条锈病和叶锈病的发生。这里提出的埃塞俄比亚小麦锈病流行病学的经验见解为改善未来的监测提供了基础，并为预测疾病传播的机械模型的发展提供了信息。
Wheat rusts are the key biological constraint to wheat production in Ethiopia—one of Africa’s largest wheat producing countries. The fungal diseases cause economic losses and threaten livelihoods of smallholder farmers. While it is known that wheat rust epidemics have occurred in Ethiopia, to date no systematic long-term analysis of past outbreaks has been available. We present results from one of the most comprehensive surveillance campaigns of wheat rusts in Africa. More than 13,000 fields have been surveyed during the last 13 years. Using a combination of spatial data-analysis and visualization, statistical tools, and empirical modelling, we identify trends in the distribution of wheat stem rust (Sr), stripe rust (Yr) and leaf rust (Lr). Results show very high infection levels (mean incidence for Yr: 44%; Sr: 34%; Lr: 18%). These recurrent rust outbreaks lead to substantial economic losses, which we estimate to be of the order of 10s of millions of US-D annually. On the widely adopted wheat variety, Digalu, there is a marked increase in disease prevalence following the incursion of new rust races into Ethiopia, which indicates a pronounced boom-and-bust cycle of major gene resistance. Using spatial analyses, we identify hotspots of disease risk for all three rusts, show a linear correlation between altitude and disease prevalence, and find a pronounced north-south trend in stem rust prevalence. Temporal analyses show a sigmoidal increase in disease levels during the wheat season and strong inter-annual variations. While a simple logistic curve performs satisfactorily in predicting stem rust in some years, it cannot account for the complex outbreak patterns in other years and fails to predict the occurrence of stripe and leaf rust. The empirical insights into wheat rust epidemiology in Ethiopia presented here provide a basis for improving future surveillance and to inform the development of mechanistic models to predict disease spread.
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影响因子：
5.6
作者：
Ali S;Rodriguez-Algaba J;Thach T;Sørensen CK;Hansen JG;Lassen P;Nazari K;Hodson DP;Justesen AF;Hovmøller MS
通讯作者：
Hovmøller MS
DOI：
10.1088/1748-9326/ab4034
发表时间：
2019-10-30
期刊：
Environmental research letters : ERL [Web site]
影响因子：
--
作者：
Allen-Sader C;Thurston W;Meyer M;Nure E;Bacha N;Alemayehu Y;Stutt ROJH;Safka D;Craig AP;Derso E;Burgin LE;Millington SC;Hort MC;Hodson DP;Gilligan CA
通讯作者：
Gilligan CA
影响因子：
4.6
作者：
Hodson DP;Jaleta M;Tesfaye K;Yirga C;Beyene H;Kilian A;Carling J;Disasa T;Alemu SK;Daba T;Misganaw A;Negisho K;Alemayehu Y;Badebo A;Abeyo B;Erenstein O
通讯作者：
Erenstein O
影响因子：
3.7
作者：
Jaleta, Moti;Hodson, Dave;Erenstein, Olaf
通讯作者：
Erenstein, Olaf
影响因子：
4.5
作者：
Jin, Y.;Szabo, L. J.;Fetch, T., Jr.
通讯作者：
Fetch, T., Jr.