People, places and policies beyond Brexit
People, places and policies beyond Brexit
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英国脱欧之外的人物、地点和政策
DOI：
10.1080/21582041.2023.2216185
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发表时间：
2023
影响因子：
2.4
通讯作者：
Bailey D
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bailey D
2019年，《当代社会科学》特刊编辑们题为《英国脱欧及以后？将英国（UK）退出欧盟（EU）的过程比作潘多拉盒子（Bailey & Budd，2019）。当然，在希腊神话中，潘多拉得到了一个盒子，众神告诉她盒子里装着来自他们的特殊礼物，但她不被允许打开盒子。她的好奇心战胜了她，打开盒子后，众神隐藏在里面的疾病和苦难就逃脱了。眼看着恶灵们纷纷逃离，潘多拉试图以最快的速度将盒子合上，将希望关在里面。希望在英国脱欧后发布一个新的LGlobal BritainL，其英勇的假设，迄今尚未实现。相反，经济增长预计将在15年内下降4-6%，贸易减少约15%（英格兰银行，2022年; OBR，2020年）。也许最能说明问题的是欧盟其他地区传统上持欧洲怀疑论的右翼政党的反应，这些政党已经急剧偏离了离开欧盟的想法（肖邦和勒奎斯纳，2021）。英国脱欧后，一些关键行业及其供应链以及农业和渔业都面临挑战。商品的影响似乎大于服务，据报道，与世界其他地区相比，进口减少了25%，但服务影响的数据是不完整的。据估计，随着10%的银行资产从英国转移到欧盟，对金融服务的影响约为6%（Hall，2023）。决议基金会的工作表明，英国的贸易开放度将下降5%至20%。然而，他们报告称，2022年英国的贸易表现有所反弹，英国的表现优于法国和美国，2022年英国的贸易开放度比2021年高出7%。对这一数据的仔细研究发现，这一好转的一个关键驱动因素是（众所周知的波动性）贵金属出口，这对英国几乎没有经济效益。剔除贵金属，英国贸易表现仍低于疫情前表现（黑尔& Fry，2023）。挑战仍然是将英国退欧的影响与COVID-19和乌克兰战争的影响隔离开来。尽管英国退欧后的希望被锁在了盒子里，但还是有一些明显的好处。这包括新移民制度的一些方面，新移民制度见证了高收入移民的意外增加（Strauss & Cocco，2023）。英国脱欧后移民政策发展的更广泛影响由Jonathan PortesL在这份特刊中探讨（Portes & Springford，2023）。另一个潜在的好处似乎是，在金融服务领域，英国不再必须遵守《偿付能力指令II》。因此，英国保险公司和养老基金将被允许持有更少、更多样化的准备金。这为利用其资金投资于急需的基础设施或新技术项目提供了可能性。当然，灵活性在实践中的有效性还有待观察。此外，英国政府在其内阁办公室报告中提出的主张并没有提出经济效益的真实的证据。相反，它包含了一系列简短的要点，说明英国脱欧后英国对国内政策和监管的自由裁量权，包括增值税率（英国政府，2022年）。
In 2019, the editors of the special issue of Contemporary Social Science entitled Brexit and Beyond? likened the process of the United Kingdom (UK) exiting the European Union (EU) to a PandoraLs Box (Bailey & Budd, 2019). In Greek myth, of course, Pandora was given a box, and was told by the Gods that it contained special gifts from them but she was not allowed to open it. Her curiosity got the better of her and on opening the box the illnesses and hardships that the Gods had hidden in it escaped. Seeing the evil spirits escaping, Pandora tried to close the box as fast as possible, closing hope inside. Hope that a new LGlobal BritainL would be released after Brexit, with its heroic assumptions, has not thus far been realised. Rather, economic growth is expected to be lower by 4-6% over 15 years and a reduction in trade of around 15%(Bank of England, 2022; OBR, 2020). Perhaps most telling has been the reaction of traditionally Eurosceptic right-wing parties in the rest of the EU, which have sharply pivoted away from ideas of leaving the bloc (Chopin & Lequesne, 2021). And post-Brexit there have been challenges to some key industry sectors and their supply chains, as well as agriculture and fishing. The impact appears to be greater for goods than services with a reported 25% reduction on imports compared to the rest of the World, but the data for services impacts are patchy. It estimated the impact on financial services has been around 6% with a shift of 10% of bank assets from the UK to the EU (Hall, 2023). Work by the Resolution Foundation suggests that trade openness in the UK will fall between 5% and 20%. They report however, there has been some rebound in the UK trade performance in 2022 with the UK outperforming both France and the US and UK trade openness was 7% higher in 2022 than in 2021. A closer inspection of the date uncovers a key driver of this upturn as being (notoriously volatile) precious metals exports which have little economic benefit to the UK. Excluding precious metals, UK trade performance is still lower than the pre-pandemic performance (Hale & Fry, 2023). The challenge remains to isolate the impacts of Brexit from that of COVID-19 and the war in Ukraine. Despite the gloom that hope had been locked in the post-Brexit box, there have nevertheless been some apparent benefits. This includes some of the aspects of new immigration system, which has witnessed an unexpected increase in higher earning inward migrants (Strauss & Cocco, 2023). The wider ramifications of developments in post-Brexit migration policy are explored by Jonathan PortesL paper in this special issue (Portes & Springford, 2023). Another potential benefit appears to be that in financial services the UK no longer must conform to the Solvency II Directive. As a result, UK insurance companies and pension funds would be allowed to hold fewer and more diverse reserves. This opens the possibility of using their funds to invest in, for example, much-needed infrastructure or new technology projects. Of course, it remains to be seen how effectively any flexibilities are used in practice. Moreover, the claims made by the UK government in its Cabinet Office report advance no real evidence of economic benefits. Rather, it contains a series of brief bullet points that state the UKLs post-Brexit discretion over domestic policy and regulation, including VAT rates (HM Government, 2022).
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