No causal effect of school closures in Japan on the spread of COVID-19 in spring 2020.
No causal effect of school closures in Japan on the spread of COVID-19 in spring 2020.
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DOI：
10.1038/s41591-021-01571-8
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发表时间：
2021-12
期刊：
影响因子：
82.9
通讯作者：
Nakagawa K
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Fukumoto K;McClean CT;Nakagawa K
在抗击由严重急性呼吸系统综合征冠状病毒2引起的2019冠状病毒病（COVID-19）的工具包中，关闭学校是最常见的非药物干预措施之一。然而，学校关闭带来了巨大的代价，如学习损失。迄今为止，研究尚未就这些政策在减轻社区传播方面的有效性达成共识，部分原因是它们缺乏严格的因果推理。在此，我们评估日本学校关闭对减少2020年春季COVID-19传播的因果影响。通过将每个有开放学校的城市与有关闭学校的城市进行匹配，这在潜在的混杂因素方面是最相似的，我们可以估计有开放学校的城市如果关闭学校会有多少病例。我们没有发现任何证据表明日本的学校关闭减少了COVID-19的传播。我们的零结果表明，鉴于对儿童和家长的潜在负面影响，应该重新审查关闭学校的政策。在2019冠状病毒病大流行开始时，日本各城市关闭学校的情况显示，与开放学校的城市的病例数相比，病例数没有显著减少，这对关闭学校在缓解严重急性呼吸系统综合征冠状病毒2型社区传播方面的效用提出了质疑。
Among tool kits to combat the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, school closures are one of the most frequent non-pharmaceutical interventions. However, school closures bring about substantial costs, such as learning loss. To date, studies have not reached a consensus about the effectiveness of these policies at mitigating community transmission, partly because they lack rigorous causal inference. Here we assess the causal effect of school closures in Japan on reducing the spread of COVID-19 in spring 2020. By matching each municipality with open schools to a municipality with closed schools that is the most similar in terms of potential confounders, we can estimate how many cases the municipality with open schools would have had if it had closed its schools. We do not find any evidence that school closures in Japan reduced the spread of COVID-19. Our null results suggest that policies on school closures should be reexamined given the potential negative consequences for children and parents. School closures in municipalities in Japan at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic showed no significant reduction in cases compared with case counts in municipalities with open schools, questioning the utility of school closures in mitigating community spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2.
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DOI：
10.1007/s41885-020-00076-x
发表时间：
2021
期刊：
Economics of disasters and climate change
影响因子：
--
作者：
Castex G;Dechter E;Lorca M
通讯作者：
Lorca M
影响因子：
6.3
作者：
Chernozhukov V;Kasahara H;Schrimpf P
通讯作者：
Schrimpf P
影响因子：
9.8
作者：
Baron, E. Jason;Goldstein, Ezra G.;Wallace, Cullen T.
通讯作者：
Wallace, Cullen T.
影响因子：
29.9
作者：
Haug, Nils;Geyrhofer, Lukas;Klimek, Peter
通讯作者：
Klimek, Peter
DOI：
10.1080/01621459.2020.1768100
发表时间：
2020-06-26
影响因子：
3.7
作者：
Forastiere, Laura;Airoldi, Edoardo M.;Mealli, Fabrizia
通讯作者：
Mealli, Fabrizia