Exploring the effect of human and animal population growth on vector-borne disease transmission with an agent-based model of Rhodesian human African trypanosomiasis in eastern province, Zambia.
Exploring the effect of human and animal population growth on vector-borne disease transmission with an agent-based model of Rhodesian human African trypanosomiasis in eastern province, Zambia.
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.pntd.0006905
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发表时间：
2018-11
影响因子：
3.8
通讯作者：
Atkinson PM
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Alderton S;Macleod ET;Anderson NE;Machila N;Simuunza M;Welburn SC;Atkinson PM
本文介绍了一个基于代理的模型（ABM）的发展，以调查布氏锥虫罗得西亚人非洲锥虫病（rHAT）的传播。ABM模型，适合在一个很好的空间尺度，被用来探索的影响，不断增长的主机人口的疾病传播沿着75公里的样带在卢安瓜河流域，赞比亚。该模型用于更好地了解人类和家畜数量的增加如何影响病媒和宿主之间的接触网络、随后的传播模式以及该地区的疾病发病率结果。模拟的发病率显示人和牛的rHAT传播增加。感染的主要人口因素发生了巨大变化，从上学的男女幼儿，到从事较短但更频繁的活动的成年妇女，如取水和拾柴，男子由于日常生活中有牛而受到更多保护。对模型输出的解释为该区域近期的人口发展和疾病传播提供了一个合理的见解，这种技术可以帮助制定未来目标明确的缓解战略。非洲锥虫病是一种寄生虫病，影响撒哈拉以南非洲36个国家的人类和其他动物。这种疾病是由采采蝇传播的，这种疾病的人类形式被称为昏睡病。随着非洲人口和动物数量的增长，对定居空间的需求也在增加，人们被迫占据越来越边缘的空间。这种行为有可能增加对原有生物危害的接触，包括病媒传播的疾病。这项调查利用代理为基础的建模技术，调查的影响，不断增长和传播的人类和动物种群在一个地区受到罗得西亚人非洲锥虫。该模型结合了以前开发的空间数据在赞比亚卢安瓜河谷的案例研究，沿着人口数据，其目前的居民，和详细的，季节性驱动的采采蝇的生命周期。采采蝇和潜在的人类和动物宿主在个体水平上进行建模，允许通过时间记录每次接触和感染。通过精细的建模，我们可以在考虑可能的空间和人口影响之前，将采采蝇出生、喂养、繁殖和死亡的详细机制，以及现实的理论人类和家畜种群增长纳入其中。
This paper presents the development of an agent-based model (ABM) to investigate Trypanosoma brucei rhodesiense human African trypanosomiasis (rHAT) disease transmission. The ABM model, fitted at a fine spatial scale, was used to explore the impact of a growing host population on the spread of disease along a 75 km transect in the Luangwa Valley, Zambia. The model was used to gain a greater understanding of how increases in human and domestic animal population could impact the contact network between vector and host, the subsequent transmission patterns, and disease incidence outcomes in the region. Modelled incidence rates showed increases in rHAT transmission in both humans and cattle. The primary demographic attribution of infection switched dramatically from young children of both sexes attending school, to adult women performing activities with shorter but more frequent trips, such as water and firewood collection, with men more protected due to the presence of cattle in their routines. The interpretation of model output provides a plausible insight into both population development and disease transmission in the near future in the region and such techniques could aid well-targeted mitigation strategies in the future. African trypanosomiasis is a parasitic disease which affects humans and other animals in 36 sub-Saharan African countries. The disease is transmitted by the tsetse fly, and the human form of the disease is known as sleeping sickness. With human and animal populations growing across Africa, demand for space to settle is on the rise, and people are being forced to occupy increasingly marginal spaces. This behaviour has the potential to increase exposure to pre-existing biological hazards, including vector-borne diseases. This investigation utilises agent-based modelling techniques to investigate the implications of a growing and spreading human and animal population in a region affected by Rhodesian human African trypanosomiasis. The model incorporates previously developed spatial data for the Luangwa Valley case study in Zambia, along with demographic data for its current inhabitants, and a detailed, seasonally-driven tsetse lifecycle. Tsetse and potential human and animal hosts are modelled at the individual level, allowing each contact and infection to be recorded through time. By modelling at a fine-scale, we can incorporate detailed mechanisms for tsetse birth, feeding, reproduction and death, as well as a realistic theoretical human and domestic animal population increase, before considering the possible spatial and demographic impact.
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影响因子：
3.2
作者：
Anderson NE;Mubanga J;Machila N;Atkinson PM;Dzingirai V;Welburn SC
通讯作者：
Welburn SC
影响因子：
4.1
作者：
Berger, T
通讯作者：
Berger, T
影响因子：
3.3
作者：
Odiit, M;Coleman, PG;Woolhouse, MEJ
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影响因子：
1.4
作者：
Raffy, M;Tran, A
通讯作者：
Tran, A
影响因子：
3.8
作者：
Hotez PJ;Kamath A
通讯作者：
Kamath A