A comparative analysis of epidemiological characteristics of MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 in Saudi Arabia.
A comparative analysis of epidemiological characteristics of MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 in Saudi Arabia.
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DOI：
10.1016/j.idm.2022.07.002
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发表时间：
2022-09
影响因子：
8.8
通讯作者：
Tildesley, Michael J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Althobaity, Yehya;Wu, Jianhong;Tildesley, Michael J.
关键词：
在这项研究中，我们根据在沙特阿拉伯获得的接触者追踪数据，确定并比较了中东呼吸综合征冠状病毒和新冠肺炎在沙特阿拉伯的潜伏期、序列间隔、症状前传播和病死率。感染日期和感染者-感染者配对是根据前往沙特阿拉伯的旅行史或接触确诊病例推断出来的。利用考虑暴露间隔审查的参数模型来估计潜伏期和序列间隔。我们的估计显示，MERS-CoV的平均潜伏期为7.21天(95%CI：6.59-7.85)，而新冠肺炎(研究期间的循环毒株)的平均潜伏期为5.43天(95%CI：4.81-6.11)。MERS冠状病毒的序列间隔估计为14.13(95%可信区间：13.9-14.7)天，而新冠肺炎的序列间隔估计为5.1(95%可信区间：5.0-5.5)天。新冠肺炎序列间隔被发现比潜伏时间短，这表明在很大一部分传播事件中可能发生症状前传播。我们得出结论，在所研究的新冠肺炎波期间，至少75%的传播发生在症状出现之前。MERS冠状病毒的CFR估计为38.1%(95%CI：36.8-39.5)，而新冠肺炎的CFR为1.67%(95%CI：1.63-1.71)。这项工作有望帮助设计未来针对特定呼吸道病毒爆发的监测和干预计划，并对未来冠状病毒爆发的应急计划产生影响。
In this study, we determine and compare the incubation duration, serial interval, pre-symptomatic transmission, and case fatality rate of MERS-CoV and COVID-19 in Saudi Arabia based on contact tracing data we acquired in Saudi Arabia. The date of infection and infector-infectee pairings are deduced from travel history to Saudi Arabia or exposure to confirmed cases. The incubation times and serial intervals are estimated using parametric models accounting for exposure interval censoring. Our estimations show that MERS-CoV has a mean incubation time of 7.21 (95% CI: 6.59–7.85) days, whereas COVID-19 (for the circulating strain in the study period) has a mean incubation period of 5.43(95% CI: 4.81–6.11) days. MERS-CoV has an estimated serial interval of 14.13(95% CI: 13.9–14.7) days, while COVID-19 has an estimated serial interval of 5.1(95% CI: 5.0–5.5) days. The COVID-19 serial interval is found to be shorter than the incubation time, indicating that pre-symptomatic transmission may occur in a significant fraction of transmission events. We conclude that during the COVID-19 wave studied, at least 75% of transmission happened prior to the onset of symptoms. The CFR for MERS-CoV is estimated to be 38.1% (95% CI: 36.8–39.5), while the CFR for COVID-19 1.67% (95% CI: 1.63–1.71). This work is expected to help design future surveillance and intervention program targeted at specific respiratory virus outbreaks, and have implications for contingency planning for future coronavirus outbreaks.
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影响因子：
4.5
作者：
Zhang ZJ;Che TL;Wang T;Zhao H;Hong J;Su Q;Zhang HY;Zhou SX;Teng AY;Zhang YY;Yang Y;Fang LQ;Liu W
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DOI：
10.1073/pnas.1519235113
发表时间：
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影响因子：
11.1
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通讯作者：
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DOI：
10.1016/j.diagmicrobio.2019.114876
发表时间：
2020-03-01
影响因子：
2.9
作者：
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通讯作者：
Mohebbi, Iraj
影响因子：
3.8
作者：
Chowell G;Blumberg S;Simonsen L;Miller MA;Viboud C
通讯作者：
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