Stepping stones to isolation: Impacts of a changing climate on the connectivity of fragmented fish populations.
Stepping stones to isolation: Impacts of a changing climate on the connectivity of fragmented fish populations.
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DOI：
10.1111/eva.12613
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发表时间：
2018-07
影响因子：
4.1
通讯作者：
Carvalho GR
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Young EF;Tysklind N;Meredith MP;de Bruyn M;Belchier M;Murphy EJ;Carvalho GR
在海洋环境中，了解导致幼虫扩散和种群关联性变化的生物物理机制，对于估计气候变化对种群复原力和遗传结构的潜在影响至关重要。与广泛分布、丰富和经常交换同种种的物种相比，种群规模小、孤立和分布不连续的物种对环境压力的反应和恢复力有根本的不同。在这里，我们使用基于个体的建模方法，结合群体遗传学预测模型，考虑气候变暖对两种对比南极鱼类Notothenia rossii和Champsocephalus gunnari的群体连通性的影响。以斯科舍海区域为重点，预计到世纪末，海表温度将显著上升，导致浮游期缩短，卵和幼虫死亡率增加。随着较短的持续时间，我们的研究结果预测减少分散的两个物种在整个斯科舍海，从南极半岛网站在北部和东部的岛屿，并增加分散在邻近的网站，如围绕南极半岛。死亡率的增加改变了人口连通性的大小，但对整体模式的影响不大。虽然预测的连接性变化对罗氏猪笼草的预测区域种群遗传结构影响不大，但在~ 1，500 km的距离内，罗氏猪笼草的遗传结构基本保持一致，预计北方斯科舍海的古那猪笼草种群的遗传隔离将随着海水温度的升高而增加。我们的研究强调了在一个变暖的世界中岛屿种群隔离增加的可能性，这对种群的恢复力及其适应持续环境变化的能力产生了影响，这与渔业和生态系统管理高度相关。
In the marine environment, understanding the biophysical mechanisms that drive variability in larval dispersal and population connectivity is essential for estimating the potential impacts of climate change on the resilience and genetic structure of populations. Species whose populations are small, isolated and discontinuous in distribution will differ fundamentally in their response and resilience to environmental stress, compared with species that are broadly distributed, abundant and frequently exchange conspecifics. Here, we use an individual‐based modelling approach, combined with a population genetics projection model, to consider the impacts of a warming climate on the population connectivity of two contrasting Antarctic fish species, Notothenia rossii and Champsocephalus gunnari. Focussing on the Scotia Sea region, sea surface temperatures are predicted to increase significantly by the end of the 21st century, resulting in reduced planktonic duration and increased egg and larval mortality. With shorter planktonic durations, the results of our study predict reduced dispersal of both species across the Scotia Sea, from Antarctic Peninsula sites to islands in the north and east, and increased dispersal among neighbouring sites, such as around the Antarctic Peninsula. Increased mortality modified the magnitude of population connectivity but had little effect on the overall patterns. Whilst the predicted changes in connectivity had little impact on the projected regional population genetic structure of N. rossii, which remained broadly genetically homogeneous within distances of ~1,500 km, the genetic isolation of C. gunnari populations in the northern Scotia Sea was predicted to increase with rising sea temperatures. Our study highlights the potential for increased isolation of island populations in a warming world, with implications for the resilience of populations and their ability to adapt to ongoing environmental change, a matter of high relevance to fisheries and ecosystem‐level management.
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