Modeling the sustainability of a ceramic water filter intervention.
Modeling the sustainability of a ceramic water filter intervention.
复制标题
DOI：
10.1016/j.watres.2013.11.035
复制
发表时间：
2014-02-01
期刊：
影响因子：
12.8
通讯作者：
Smith, James
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Mellor, Jonathan;Abebe, Lydia;Ehdaie, Beeta;Dillingham, Rebecca;Smith, James
关键词：
陶瓷滤水器(CWF)是一种使用点水处理技术，在资源有限的环境中预防幼儿腹泻(ECD)方面显示出良好的前景。尽管有这样的前景，但一些研究人员质疑他们长期减少ECD发病率的能力，因为到目前为止进行的大多数有效性试验的持续时间都不到一年，限制了他们评估长期可持续性因素的能力。大多数试验也存在缺乏盲目性的问题，这使得它们可能存在偏见。本研究基于一项为期三年的纵向现场研究，使用基于代理人的模型(ABM)来探索与CWF在预防ECD中的长期可持续性相关的因素。探讨了过滤器使用者依从性、微生物去除效果、过滤器清洁和依从性下降等因素。模拟结果表明，广义的人类行为，如遵从性和由于维护不当而导致的微生物有效性下降，是家庭饮用水质量和ECD率结果指标的主要驱动因素。该模型预测，陶瓷过滤器干预可以将两岁以下儿童的ECD发病率降低41.3%。然而，三年后，由于维护不当导致过滤器微生物去除效率下降，平均过滤器在减少ECD发病率方面几乎完全无效。该模型预测，如果合规率为80%-90%，过滤器日志减少效率为3或更高，并且长期合规性下降最小，则可能出现非常低的ECD率。至少每4个月清洁一次过滤器使其更有可能实现非常低的ECD率，购买更换过滤器的可能性也更大。这些结果有助于理解在以前的干预对照试验中看到的异质性，并再次强调研究人员需要准确地测量混杂变量，并确保现场试验至少持续2-3年。总而言之，气候变化框架可以成为抗击幼儿疾病的一个非常有效的工具，但执行机构应尽一切努力确保一致的使用和维护。
Ceramic water filters (CWFs) are a point-of-use water treatment technology that has shown promise in preventing early childhood diarrhea (ECD) in resource-limited settings. Despite this promise, some researchers have questioned their ability to reduce ECD incidences over the long term since most effectiveness trials conducted to date are less than one year in duration limiting their ability to assess long-term sustainability factors. Most trials also suffer from lack of blinding making them potentially biased. This study uses an agent-based model (ABM) to explore factors related to the long-term sustainability of CWFs in preventing ECD and was based on a three year longitudinal field study. Factors such as filter user compliance, microbial removal effectiveness, filter cleaning and compliance declines were explored. Modeled results indicate that broadly defined human behaviors like compliance and declining microbial effectiveness due to improper maintenance are primary drivers of the outcome metrics of household drinking water quality and ECD rates. The model predicts that a ceramic filter intervention can reduce ECD incidence amongst under two year old children by 41.3%. However, after three years, the average filter is almost entirely ineffective at reducing ECD incidence due to declining filter microbial removal effectiveness resulting from improper maintenance. The model predicts very low ECD rates are possible if compliance rates are 80-90%, filter log reduction efficiency is 3 or greater and there are minimal long-term compliance declines. Cleaning filters at least once every 4 months makes it more likely to achieve very low ECD rates as does the availability of replacement filters for purchase. These results help to understand the heterogeneity seen in previous intervention-control trials and reemphasize the need for researchers to accurately measure confounding variables and ensure that field trials are at least 2-3 years in duration. In summary, the CWF can be a highly effective tool in the fight against ECD, but every effort should be made by implementing agencies to ensure consistent use and maintenance.
登录
查看更多内容
影响因子：
12.7
作者：
Eisenberg, Joseph N. S.;Scott, James C.;Porco, Travis
通讯作者：
Porco, Travis
影响因子：
11.4
作者：
Hunter, Paul R.
通讯作者：
Hunter, Paul R.
影响因子：
3.4
作者：
Linkola, Lilli;Andrews, Clinton J.;Schuetze, Thorsten
通讯作者：
Schuetze, Thorsten
影响因子：
2.3
作者：
Brown, Joe;Sobsey, Mark D.
通讯作者：
Sobsey, Mark D.
DOI：
10.4269/ajtmh.2008.79.696
发表时间：
2008-11-01
影响因子：
3.3
作者：
du Preez, Martella;Conroy, Ronan M.;Gundry, Stephen W.
通讯作者：
Gundry, Stephen W.