Early follow-up data from seizure diaries can be used to predict subsequent seizures in same cohort by borrowing strength across participants.

Early follow-up data from seizure diaries can be used to predict subsequent seizures in same cohort by borrowing strength across participants.
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DOI:
10.1016/j.yebeh.2008.12.011
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发表时间:
2009-03
影响因子:
2.6
通讯作者:
Haut, Sheryl R.
Haut, Sheryl R.
中科院分区:
医学3区
文献类型:
--
作者:
Hall, Charles B.;Lipton, Richard B.;Tennen, Howard;Haut, Sheryl R.

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准确预测癫痫患者的癫痫发作为预防措施和先发制人的治疗提供了机会。以前确定的癫痫发作的预测因素包括患者报告的癫痫发作预期,以及压力,焦虑和睡眠减少。在这项研究中,我们使用71名有不受控制癫痫发作史的人的30天夜间癫痫发作日记数据开发了三个模型,以预测同一队列在30天随访期内的后续癫痫发作。最好的模型结合了个体的癫痫发作史与队列的其余部分,导致72%的灵敏度为80%的特异性,以及0.83的受试者工作特征曲线下面积。临床相关预测的可能性应通过电子数据采集和更具体和更频繁的采样进行检查,并与患者培训,以提高预测。
Accurate prediction of seizures in persons with epilepsy offers opportunities for both precautionary measures and preemptive treatment. Previously identified predictors of seizures include patient-reported seizure anticipation, as well as stress, anxiety, and decreased sleep. In this study, we developed three models using 30 days of nightly seizure diary data in a cohort of 71 individuals with a history of uncontrolled seizures to predict subsequent seizures in the same cohort over a 30-day follow-up period. The best model combined the individual’s seizure history with that of the remainder of the cohort, resulting in 72% sensitivity for 80% specificity, and 0.83 area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. The possibility of clinically relevant prediction should be examined through electronic data capture and more specific and more frequent sampling, and with patient training to improve prediction.
DOI: 10.1080/00949659308811554
发表时间: 1993-01-01
影响因子: 1.2
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