The role of conviction and narrative in decision-making under radical uncertainty.

The role of conviction and narrative in decision-making under radical uncertainty.
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DOI:
10.1177/0959354317713158
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发表时间:
2017-08
影响因子:
1.2
通讯作者:
Nikolic M
Nikolic M
中科院分区:
心理学4区
文献类型:
--
作者:
Tuckett D;Nikolic M

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我们提出信念叙事理论(CNT),以扩大决策理论,以更好地理解和分析如何主观的手段-目的理性的行为者科普的背景下,传统的假设在决策模型不成立。信念叙事使行动者能够利用他们的信念、因果模型和经验法则来识别值得采取行动的机会,模拟他们行动的未来结果,并感到有足够的信心采取行动。该框架侧重于叙述和情感如何联合收割机结合,以允许演员深思熟虑,并选择他们认为会产生他们想要的结果的行动。它详细说明了特定的情绪和深思熟虑之间的联系,假设在叙事模拟过程中引发的接近和回避情绪起着至关重要的作用。两种心理状态,分裂和整合,其中的叙述可以形成或更新,并介绍和用于解释一些熟悉的问题,传统的模型不能。
We propose conviction narrative theory (CNT) to broaden decision-making theory in order to better understand and analyse how subjectively means–end rational actors cope in contexts in which the traditional assumptions in decision-making models fail to hold. Conviction narratives enable actors to draw on their beliefs, causal models, and rules of thumb to identify opportunities worth acting on, to simulate the future outcome of their actions, and to feel sufficiently convinced to act. The framework focuses on how narrative and emotion combine to allow actors to deliberate and to select actions that they think will produce the outcomes they desire. It specifies connections between particular emotions and deliberative thought, hypothesising that approach and avoidance emotions evoked during narrative simulation play a crucial role. Two mental states, Divided and Integrated, in which narratives can be formed or updated, are introduced and used to explain some familiar problems that traditional models cannot.
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