Development of bottom-up model to estimate dynamic carbon emission for city-scale buildings
Development of bottom-up model to estimate dynamic carbon emission for city-scale buildings
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开发自下而上的模型来估算城市规模建筑的动态碳排放
DOI：
10.1016/j.apenergy.2022.120410
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发表时间：
2023-02
期刊：
影响因子：
11.2
通讯作者：
Yixing Chen
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Jingjing Yang;Zhang Deng;Siyue Guo;Yixing Chen
建筑行业在实现碳中和目标方面发挥着关键作用，而了解城市一级建筑存量的碳排放趋势具有挑战性。本研究基于动态物质流原理和城市建筑能源模型，建立了自下而上的模型。结合情景分析，该模型可用于预测到2060年城市建筑存量规模、构成、能耗和碳排放的动态发展。以长沙为例。设定了基线情景、低存量情景、先进建筑标准情景、低功率排放因子情景和协同减排情景5个情景，分别考虑了存量规模、功率排放因子、建筑能源标准及其组合的减排潜力。结果表明，降低电力排放因子、控制建筑存量规模和提高建筑能效标准可在2060年分别减少28.29%、13.38%和17.49%的碳排放。当上述三项措施同时实施时，碳排放量可减少47.90%，并在2030年前达到峰值。因此，在建筑行业实现碳中和需要多部门的努力。
The building sector plays a key role in achieving the goal of carbon neutrality while understanding the carbon emission trend of building stock at the city-level is challenging. This study develops a bottom-up model based on the dynamic material flow principle and urban building energy models. Combined with scenario analysis, this model can be used to predict the dynamic development of the size, composition, energy consumption and carbon emissions of building stock in city-level by 2060. Take Changsha as a case study. Five scenarios were set: baseline scenario, less building stock (LBS) scenario, advanced building standard (ABS) scenario, low power emission factor (LPEF) scenario and synergistic emission reduction (SER) scenario, which consider the reduction potential of the building stock size, power emission factors, building energy standards, and their combinations. The result shows that decreasing power emission factors, controlling the building stock size and improving building energy efficiency standards can reduce carbon emissions by 28.29%, 13.38% and 17.49% in 2060, respectively. When the above three measures are implemented simultaneously, the carbon emissions can be reduced by 47.90% and peak before 2030. Therefore, achieving carbon neutrality in the building sector requires a multi-sectoral effort.
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