A small community model for the transmission of infectious diseases: comparison of school closure as an intervention in individual-based models of an influenza pandemic.
A small community model for the transmission of infectious diseases: comparison of school closure as an intervention in individual-based models of an influenza pandemic.
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.pone.0004005
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发表时间：
2008
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
McVernon, Jodie
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Milne, George J.;Kelso, Joel K.;Kelly, Heath A.;Huband, Simon T.;McVernon, Jodie
在缺乏其他证据的情况下，模型被广泛用于帮助决策者为未来可能发生的流感大流行制定计划。我们已经构建了一个基于个人的模型，在发达国家的一个小社区，详细到确切的家庭结构，从人口普查收集数据集和精确的模拟家庭人口，社区内的运动和个人接触模式。我们模拟了大流行性流感在该社区的传播，以及四种社交距离措施对每日和最终发病率的影响：学校关闭，增加病例隔离，工作场所缺勤和减少社区接触。我们比较了在没有任何干预措施的情况下最终发病率的模拟结果，以及关闭学校作为单一干预措施的影响与发达国家其他已发表的基于个人的大流行性流感模型。我们发现，在没有实施干预措施的大流行中，已发表的基于个体的模型在R 0值的范围内估计了类似的最终攻击率;早期和持续应用的多种社交距离措施可以非常有效地阻断R 0值高达2.5的大流行病毒的传播;在已发表的模型中，对学校关闭的模拟效益得出的不同结论似乎是由于对学校关闭的时间和持续时间以及流量的假设不同所致，学校关闭对其他社会交往的影响。大流行性流感的传播和控制模型有可能帮助决策者决定采取何种控制策略。然而，决策者需要注意的是，所研究的模型和控制战略的假设基础。
In the absence of other evidence, modelling has been used extensively to help policy makers plan for a potential future influenza pandemic. We have constructed an individual based model of a small community in the developed world with detail down to exact household structure obtained from census collection datasets and precise simulation of household demographics, movement within the community and individual contact patterns. We modelled the spread of pandemic influenza in this community and the effect on daily and final attack rates of four social distancing measures: school closure, increased case isolation, workplace non-attendance and community contact reduction. We compared the modelled results of final attack rates in the absence of any interventions and the effect of school closure as a single intervention with other published individual based models of pandemic influenza in the developed world. We showed that published individual based models estimate similar final attack rates over a range of values for R0 in a pandemic where no interventions have been implemented; that multiple social distancing measures applied early and continuously can be very effective in interrupting transmission of the pandemic virus for R0 values up to 2.5; and that different conclusions reached on the simulated benefit of school closure in published models appear to result from differences in assumptions about the timing and duration of school closure and flow-on effects on other social contacts resulting from school closure. Models of the spread and control of pandemic influenza have the potential to assist policy makers with decisions about which control strategies to adopt. However, attention needs to be given by policy makers to the assumptions underpinning both the models and the control strategies examined.
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影响因子：
11.8
作者：
Haber MJ;Shay DK;Davis XM;Patel R;Jin X;Weintraub E;Orenstein E;Thompson WW
通讯作者：
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影响因子：
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作者：
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通讯作者：
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DOI：
10.1098/rsif.2007.1197
发表时间：
2008-06-06
期刊：
Journal of the Royal Society, Interface
影响因子：
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作者：
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通讯作者：
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影响因子：
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作者：
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通讯作者：
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DOI：
10.1073/pnas.0308344101
发表时间：
2004-10-19
影响因子：
11.1
作者：
Hufnagel, L;Brockmann, D;Geisel, T
通讯作者：
Geisel, T